Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 8, Problem 46AP
Summary Introduction
Interpretation:
Concept Introduction:All planning/
Size of the bucket depends on and affects many parameters.
MRP’s in many manufacturing companies are seen to have a time bucket of a week but it is not the rule.
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The observed demand from the four quarters of Year 1 can also be used to developinitial deseasonalized forecast estimates that are required to start making forecasts withthe exponential smoothing models. The first real forecast will be for Q1 of Year 2, andthe use of simple exponential smoothing requires an estimated deseasonalized forecastfrom Q4 of Year 1 to use as a starting point. The estimated deseasonalized “forecast” forQ4 of Year 1 should be obtained as the average deseasonalized quarterly demand fromYear 1. The estimate can also be used as the starting base forecast component for Q4 ofYear 1 for trend-adjusted exponential smoothing. The initial deseasonalized trendcomponent estimate for Q4 of Year 1 should be assumed to be zero.
a. What is your forecast for December of Year 4, making period 1 as the starting period for the regression?
b. The actual demand for period 48 was just learned to be 5,100. Add this demand to the Inputs file and change the starting period for the regression to period 2 so that the number of periods in the regression remains unchanged. How much or little does the forecast for period 49 change from the one for period 48? The error measures? Are you surprised?c. Now change the time when the regression starts to period 25 and repeat the process. What differences do you note now? What forecast will you make for period 49?
What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer orders and long lead times?
We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help Sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?
Chapter 8 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 1PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 2PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 3PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 4PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 5PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 6PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 7PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 8PCh. 8.1 - Prob. 9PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 11PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 12PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 13PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 14PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 15PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 16PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 17PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 18PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 19PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 20PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 21PCh. 8.2 - Prob. 22PCh. 8.3 - Prob. 23PCh. 8.3 - Prob. 24PCh. 8.3 - Prob. 25PCh. 8.4 - Prob. 26PCh. 8.4 - Prob. 27PCh. 8.4 - Prob. 28PCh. 8.4 - Prob. 29PCh. 8.5 - Prob. 30PCh. 8.5 - Prob. 31PCh. 8.5 - Prob. 32PCh. 8.5 - Prob. 33PCh. 8.5 - Prob. 34PCh. 8.6 - Prob. 35PCh. 8.6 - Prob. 36PCh. 8.6 - Prob. 37PCh. 8.6 - Prob. 38PCh. 8.6 - Prob. 39PCh. 8.6 - Prob. 40PCh. 8 - Prob. 41APCh. 8 - Prob. 42APCh. 8 - Prob. 43APCh. 8 - Prob. 44APCh. 8 - Prob. 45APCh. 8 - Prob. 46APCh. 8 - Prob. 48APCh. 8 - Prob. 49APCh. 8 - Prob. 50APCh. 8 - Prob. 51AP
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