EBK OM
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781305888210
Author: Collier
Publisher: YUZU
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Question
Chapter 18, Problem 15PA
Summary Introduction
Interpretation: The probability that the project is completed within the estimated duration is to be determined.
Concept Introduction:
Project
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
The R&D department of Labuan Authority Development Unit is planning to bid on a large project for the development of a new communication system for Labuan Convention Centre. The accompanying table shows the activities, times and sequences required for the project planning and monitoring.
Based on the table, identify the critical path and the expected project completion time. Is there any probability of completing this project within 20 months? How about 18 months?
ctivities
Immediate Predecessor
Times (Months)
Optimistic
Most Likely
Pessimistic
A
--
3
5
8
B
--
2
4
5
C
A
5
4
6
D
A
2
5
9
E
B
4
6
10
F
C,D
3
6
8
G
D,E
5
7
12
H
F,G
2
4
7
Construct the project network for this project and determine the following:
d) Expected project duration and variance
e) The probability that the mill will be fined $300,000
Consider the following table which presents information on the returns in million pounds
from a range of investment project alternatives for a company depending on the performance
of the economy: the economy may be in a recession, performing at a normal level or
booming.
SCENARIO
RECESSION
NORMAL
ВОOM
Project A
Project B
Project C
12
18
28
10
22
32
11
21
31
a) Briefly describe and apply the following decision criteria to select the optimal project:
i.
Maxi – min rule;
ii.
Махi
- max rule;
11.
Mini max regret rule.
b) Using data provided below, compute appropriate values and fill the table below to help
identify the least risky and most risky project among alternatives A, B and C using
appropriate criteria.
Project
P
EV
D
D2
Var
St. dev Coef.Of Var
12
0.2
A
18
0.7
28
0.1
10
0.3
В
22
0.6
32
0.1
11
0.1
C
21
0.8
31
0.1
Where n denotes the profit, P is the probability, EV stand for Expected value, D is the
Deviation, D$ denote the deviation square, St. dev is the standard deviation and…
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Explain the concept of project feasibility analysis. What are the key factors that determine whether a project is feasible or not?arrow_forwardThe ABC Manufacturing Company has set up a weighted scoring matrix for evaluating some potential projects. Following are five projects under consideration. Using the scoring matrix below which project would you rate highest? Lowest? If the weight for “Sponsor Support” is changed from 2.0 to 5.0, will the project selection change? What are the three highest-weighted project scores with this new weight? Why is it important that the weights mirror critical strategic factors? Project Screening Matrix Criteria Weight Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4 Project 5 Sponsor Support 2 9 3 6 1 3 Strategic Alliance 5 5 7 8 0 10 Urgency 4 2 2 2 5 10 Fills a market gap 3 0 0 3 10 1 Sales 3 2 5 6 6 8 Competition 1 5 1 8 9 0arrow_forwardDefine the term Probability of Project Completion?arrow_forward
- Refer to either Case 7.1 Alaska Fly-Fishing Expedition, 7.2 Silver Fiddle Construction, 7.3 Trans LAN Project, and 7.4 XSU Spring Concert of your text. Each of these cases presents you with a project scope statement for a fictional project. You are to pick 1 of these cases on which to perform a risk analysis. After picking a case of your choice, you should address the following: Identify potential risks associated with this project (you must come up with at least 5 different risks).arrow_forwardDraw CPM network of activities tabulated below: 1. Calculate the expected duration and the standard deviation for the critical path. 2. Compute the followings: (a) The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 50 (b) The probability that the project will finish at day 52 (c) The probability that the project will finish before the start of day 49. (d) The completion date with at least a 95% confidence levelarrow_forwardManager Cafe "Blue Sky" is considering investing 2 (two) projects. Project X is an investment of $ 75,000 to replace a working but outdated cooling equipment. Project Y is a $ 150,000 investment to expand the dining facilities. Relevant cash flow data for the two projects over the expected 2 years are as follows: Project X Year 1 Year 2 Probability Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow 0.16 $0 0.08 $0 0.66 $50000 0.82 $50000 0.18 $100000 0.10 $100000 Project Y Year 1 Year 2 Probability Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow 0.50 $0 0.13 $0 0.50 $200000 0.74 $100000 0.13 $200000 Calculate: Expected value, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for cash flows from each project. Compute: Risk-adjusted NPV for each project using a cost of capital of 15% for riskier projects, and 12% cost of capital for less risky projects. Which project is more…arrow_forward
- The following information has been computed from aproject:Expected total project time = T = 62 weeksProject variance (s2p ) = 81What is the probability that the project will be completed18 weeks before its expected completion date?arrow_forwardA group of developers is building a new shopping center. A consultant for the developers has developedthe following table of activities, durations and predecessors. Determine the earliest start times andfinish times, latest start and finish times, activity slack, critical path and duration for the project. Thereis a Bonus for finishing the project at 90% of the projected date. The bonus for early completion is$50,000. Which activities should be crashed, if the cost for 1 week reduction, for any activity, is $3500per week, and what is the total cost of crashing? And, Net Bonus, if any.arrow_forwardRefer to either Case 7.1 Alaska Fly-Fishing Expedition, 7.2 Silver Fiddle Construction, 7.3 Trans LAN Project, and 7.4 XSU Spring Concert of your text. Each of these cases presents you with a project scope statement for a fictional project. You are to pick 1 of these cases on which to perform a risk analysis. After picking a case of your choice, you should address the following: Use a risk assessment form to analyze identified risks.arrow_forward
- You may need to use the appropriate technology to answer this question. Mueller & Associates is a urban planning firm that is designing a new public park in an Omaha suburb. Coordination of the architect and subcontractors will require a major effort to meet the 42- week completion date requested by the owner. The Mueller project manager prepared the following project network. Start Activity A B с D E Estimates of the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times (in weeks) for the activities are as follows. TI G H Optimistic Most Probable 4 6 6 weeks 3 6 5 10 A 5 8 7 12 5 9 8 B 15 6 Pessimistic 12 8 18 7 18 17 20 (b) What is the expected project completion time (in weeks)? 52 13 F E (a) Find the critical path. (Enter your answers as a comma-separated list.) A,C,E,G,H G H Finish (c) Based only on the critical path, what is the estimated probability the project can be completed in 42 weeks as requested by the owner? (Round your answer to four decimal places.) X (d) Based only on the…arrow_forwardExplain the concept of project feasibility analysis. What key factors determine the feasibility of a project?arrow_forwardwhich feasibility measure estimates the cost/benefit of the project and how it is measured?arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Operations ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781259667473Author:William J StevensonPublisher:McGraw-Hill EducationOperations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781259666100Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B ChasePublisher:McGraw-Hill Education
- Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage LearningProduction and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781478623069Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon OlsenPublisher:Waveland Press, Inc.
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Operations Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259667473
Author:William J Stevenson
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259666100
Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781478623069
Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher:Waveland Press, Inc.
Inventory Management | Concepts, Examples and Solved Problems; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n9NLZTIlz8;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY