Concept explainers
a)
To construct: A decision tree.
Introduction:
Decision tree:
A decision tree can be termed as map of all the possible outcomes that can arise from the series of related choices. It will allow an individual or an organization to weigh their outcomes in different bases of costs, probabilities and the benefits.
b)
To determine: The best decision using the expected value criterion.
Introduction:
Expected monetary value (EMV):
Expected monetary value is the figure which shows the reasonable returns that can be received from a situation. It can be termed as an average of the best case scenario. It will include both the returns and the likelihood of that particular outcome occurring.
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Mylab Operations Management With Pearson Etext -- Access Card -- For Operations Management: Sustainability And Supply Chain Management (13th Edition)
- At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.arrow_forwardDilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.arrow_forwardThe owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?arrow_forward
- Use the below formula to calculate the CLV for the following: A manager of a cable company wants to determine if it is strategic to acquire the Brett family, by estimating their household-level CLV. The manager estimates that it will cost the company $80 (A) to get the Bretts’ to switch, and the Bretts’ will generate $150 profit each year (M), with a $30 annual marketing cost to retain them (C). The estimated retention rate (r) is 65%, and the current discount rate is 5%.(d) i) CLV= ii) Based on your calculation, are the Brett’s profitable to the cable company?arrow_forwardThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.arrow_forwardIn the original OJ Simpson trial, it was accepted that OJ had battered his wife. OJ’s lawyer tried to negate the impact of this information by stating that in a one-year period, only 1 out of 2500 battered women are murdered, so the fact that OJ battered his wife does not give much evidence that he was the murderer. The prosecution (foolishly!) let this go unchallenged. Here are the relevant statistics: In a typical year 6.25 million women are battered, 2500 are battered and murdered, and 2250 of the women who were battered and murdered were killed by the batterer. How should the prosecution have refuted the defense’s argument?arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,