OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
7th Edition
ISBN: 9780077835439
Author: Roger G Schroeder, M. Johnny Rungtusanatham, Susan Meyer Goldstein
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 10.S, Problem 5P
Management of the ABC Floral Shop believes that its sales are seasonal in nature with a monthly seasonal pattern and no trend. The demand data and seasonal ratios for the past three years are given as follows.
- a. Calculate a
forecast for Year 3 usingA0 = 15,000, α= γ = .3, and the seasonal ratios shown above. For each period, calculate the forecast and the updated seasonal ratio. - b. Plot the original data and the forecast on a graph.
- c. Calculate the tracking signals for the past year using MAD0 = o. Are they within tolerances?
- d. Using the classical decomposition method described in the chapter supplement, calculate the seasonal ratios from the data and determine the trend and average levels. Use these ratios and estimates of trend and level to make a forecast for the next year.
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Students have asked these similar questions
The monthly market shares of General Electric Company for 12
consecutive months follow.
A. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the
data?
B. Develop three-month and four-month moving averages for
this time series. Does the three-month or the four-month
moving average provide the better forecasts based on MSE?
Explain your reasoning.
C. Using your results in (B), compute MAD, MAPE, and
Tracking Signal (TS). Which method provides better forecast?
Explain your reasoning. Assume TS limit of ±4.
D. Apply exponential smoothing to the data. Compute MSE,
MAPE, MAD, and TS. Use a = 0.3. How does exponential
smoothing compare with four-month moving average?
Assume TS limit of ±4.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Market
Shares
23.39
23.56
23.02
23.03
23.60
23.37
23.21
23.40
23.31
23.94
23.39
23.50
4, The accompanying dataset provides the closing prices for four stocks and the stock exchange over 12 days. Complete parts a through c.
Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for stock B.
(Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.)
Date
Forecast B
09/03/2010
09/07/2010
enter your response here
09/08/2010
enter your response here
09/09/2010
enter your response here
09/10/2010
enter your response here
09/13/2010
enter your response here
09/14/2010
enter your response here
09/15/2010
enter your response here
09/16/2010
enter your response here
09/17/2010
enter your response here
09/20/2010
enter your response here
09/21/2010
enter your response here
Date
A
B
C
D
Stock Exchange
09/03/2010
127.07
18.54
20.84
15.44
10,536.56
09/07/2010
124.84
18.21
20.45
15.55
10,245.77
09/08/2010
125.67
17.77
20.83
15.72…
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period.
MONTH
ACTUAL
January
120
February
145
March
146
April
171
May
154
June
182
July
138
August
135
September
146
a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average.
b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.20 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April.
c-1. Calculate MAD for Three-month moving average and Exponential smoothing.
c-2. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period.
Chapter 10 Solutions
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
Ch. 10.S - Ace Hardware sells spare parts for lawn mowers....Ch. 10.S - eXcel The daily demand for chocolate donuts from...Ch. 10.S - The SureGrip Tire Company produces tires of...Ch. 10.S - eXcelManagement believes there is a seasonal...Ch. 10.S - Management of the ABC Floral Shop believes that...Ch. 10 - Prob. 1DQCh. 10 - What is the distinction between forecasting and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasting methods should be used...Ch. 10 - Describe the uses of qualitative, time-series, and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not...
Ch. 10 - Prob. 6DQCh. 10 - What are the advantages of exponential smoothing...Ch. 10 - How should the choice of be made for exponential...Ch. 10 - Prob. 9DQCh. 10 - Prob. 10DQCh. 10 - Explain how CPFR can be used to reduce forecasting...Ch. 10 - Under what circumstances might CPFR be useful, and...Ch. 10 - Daily demand for marigold flowers at a large...Ch. 10 - The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy...Ch. 10 - 3-The ABC Floral Shop sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - The Handy Dandy Department Store had forecast...Ch. 10 - 5-The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential...Ch. 10 - Using the data in problem 2, prepare exponentially...Ch. 10 - Compute the errors of bias and absolute deviation...Ch. 10 - eXcel At the ABC Floral Shop, an argument...Ch. 10 - Only a portion of the following table for...Ch. 10 - A candy store has sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - eXcel A grocery store sells the following number...Ch. 10 - Prob. 12PCh. 10 - The Easyfit tire store had demand for tires shown...Ch. 10 - Prob. 14P
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