OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
7th Edition
ISBN: 9780077835439
Author: Roger G Schroeder, M. Johnny Rungtusanatham, Susan Meyer Goldstein
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Textbook Question
Chapter 10, Problem 5P
5-The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential smoothing method. Last week the
- a. Using a α = .1, prepare a forecut for next week.
- b. Calculate the forecast using a α = .2 and a α = .3. Which value of a gives the best forecast, assuming actual demand is 95,000 gallons?
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Students have asked these similar questions
Consider the data below which includes sales data and the forecasts that would have been
made using exponential smoothing with a = 0.3.
Exp. Smoothing
Time Period
Sales
Forecast
1
90
90
80
90
100
87
4
70
90.9
105
84.6
6.
85
90.7
Report all answers to 1 decimal place.
a. Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.3, what is the forecast for time period 7?
b. Using the naive value method, what is the forecast for time period 7?
c. Using a 3-period moving average, what is the forecast for time period 7?
B). Using exponential smoothing, calculate the forecasts for months 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The smoothing
constant is 0.2, and the old forecast for month I is 245.
Month
Actual
Demand
Forecast
Demand
1
260
2.
230
3
225
4
245
5
250
6.
C). Given the following average demand for each month, calculate the seasonal indices for each month.
Month
Average
Demand
Seasonal
Index
January
30
February
50
March
85
April
110
May
125
June
245
July
255
August
135
September
100
October
90
November
50
December
30
Total
3
D). Using the data in part A and the seasonal indices you have calculated, calculate expected monthly
demand if the annual forecast is 2000 units.
Month
Seasonal
Forecast
Index
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
3. The following tabulations are actual sales of units for 6 months and a starting forecast in January.
a. Calculate forecasts for the remaining 5 months using simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.2.
b. Calculate MAD for the forecasts.
January
February
March
April
May
June
Actual
100
94
106
80
68
94
Forecast
80
Chapter 10 Solutions
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
Ch. 10.S - Ace Hardware sells spare parts for lawn mowers....Ch. 10.S - eXcel The daily demand for chocolate donuts from...Ch. 10.S - The SureGrip Tire Company produces tires of...Ch. 10.S - eXcelManagement believes there is a seasonal...Ch. 10.S - Management of the ABC Floral Shop believes that...Ch. 10 - Prob. 1DQCh. 10 - What is the distinction between forecasting and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasting methods should be used...Ch. 10 - Describe the uses of qualitative, time-series, and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not...
Ch. 10 - Prob. 6DQCh. 10 - What are the advantages of exponential smoothing...Ch. 10 - How should the choice of be made for exponential...Ch. 10 - Prob. 9DQCh. 10 - Prob. 10DQCh. 10 - Explain how CPFR can be used to reduce forecasting...Ch. 10 - Under what circumstances might CPFR be useful, and...Ch. 10 - Daily demand for marigold flowers at a large...Ch. 10 - The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy...Ch. 10 - 3-The ABC Floral Shop sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - The Handy Dandy Department Store had forecast...Ch. 10 - 5-The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential...Ch. 10 - Using the data in problem 2, prepare exponentially...Ch. 10 - Compute the errors of bias and absolute deviation...Ch. 10 - eXcel At the ABC Floral Shop, an argument...Ch. 10 - Only a portion of the following table for...Ch. 10 - A candy store has sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - eXcel A grocery store sells the following number...Ch. 10 - Prob. 12PCh. 10 - The Easyfit tire store had demand for tires shown...Ch. 10 - Prob. 14P
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