The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation. Introduction: Exponential smoothing: In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

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Answer 1

Question

Chapter 10, Problem 14P

a)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation.

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing:

In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

b)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

c)

Summary Introduction

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

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The demand (in number of units) for Apple iPad over the past 6 months at BestBuy is summarized below. Month Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Demand 45 48 Jan 2020 50 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 42 46 51 Consider the following three forecasting methods: • Two-month weighted moving average, with weights 6 and 2 (more weight assigned to more recent data) Exponential smoothing with a = 0.7. Let the initial forecast for Nov 2019 be 46. • A trend line projection in the form ŷ = a+bx . To simplify computations, transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers – designate Nov 2019 as x=1, Dec 2019 as x= 2, etc. (a ) For each of the above methods, forecast the demand of Apple iPad for May 2020. (b) Consider only the two-month weighted moving average method, compute the MAD measure and the MSE measure using the data from Jan 2020. (c) Use the trend line to forecast the demand of Apple iPad for Dec 2020. Give your opinion regarding the reliability of the forecast.

Sales of tablet computers at Marika Gonzalez's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below: 2 Week 1 Demand 19 23 Week 1 Demand 19 Forecast 19.0 3 27 2 23 4 36 3 27 5 6 24 28 37 4 36 a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.50 and a week 1 initial forecast of 19.0 are (round your responses to two decimal places): 5 24 6 28 8 20 7 37 9 26 8 20 10 29 9 26 D 10 29

The actual monthly demand of special pizza in the past 6 months were: 392, 355, 406, 427, 282, 394 If a four-month moving average forecasting model is used to generate forecasts, what is the value of the Mean Absolute Percent Error (in percent)? Use at least 4 decimals.

Answer 2

Question

Chapter 10, Problem 14P

a)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation.

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing:

In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

b)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

c)

Summary Introduction

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

Expert Solution & Answer

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Answer 3

Question

Chapter 10, Problem 14P

a)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation.

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing:

In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

b)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

c)

Summary Introduction

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

Expert Solution & Answer

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Answer 4

Question

Chapter 10, Problem 14P

a)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation.

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing:

In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

b)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

c)

Summary Introduction

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

Expert Solution & Answer

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Answer 5

Chapter 10, Problem 14P

a)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation.

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing:

In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

b)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

c)

Summary Introduction

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

Answer 6

Chapter 10, Problem 14P

a)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation.

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing:

In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

Answer 7

Chapter 10, Problem 14P

a)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the first 7 days and select the forecast with the best absolute deviation.

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing:

In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data is given lesser importance and the newer data is given more importance. It is efficient for making short term forecasts.

Answer 8

b)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

Answer 9

b)

Summary Introduction

To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

Answer 10

c)

Summary Introduction

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

Answer 11

c)

Summary Introduction

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

Answer 12

Expert Solution & Answer

Answer 13

Expert Solution & Answer

Answer 14

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Answer 15

Ch. 10.S - Ace Hardware sells spare parts for lawn mowers....Ch. 10.S - eXcel The daily demand for chocolate donuts from...Ch. 10.S - The SureGrip Tire Company produces tires of...Ch. 10.S - eXcelManagement believes there is a seasonal...Ch. 10.S - Management of the ABC Floral Shop believes that...Ch. 10 - Prob. 1DQ Ch. 10 - What is the distinction between forecasting and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasting methods should be used...Ch. 10 - Describe the uses of qualitative, time-series, and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not...

Solution Summary: The author explains the exponential smoothing forecast method, which gives older data less importance and newer data more importance. The spreadsheet model using 3-period moving average provides the better results.

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To prepare: The forecast for the last 7 days and compare the total absolute deviation.

To explain: What does the example illustrate.

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Chapter 10 Solutions