OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
7th Edition
ISBN: 9780077835439
Author: Roger G Schroeder, M. Johnny Rungtusanatham, Susan Meyer Goldstein
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Textbook Question
Chapter 10, Problem 6P
Using the data in problem 2, prepare exponentially smoothed
- a. α = .1 and F1 = 90
- b. α = .3 and F1 = 90
a)
Expert Solution
Summary Introduction
To develop: The exponential smoothed forecast
Introduction:
Exponential smoothing:
In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data are given lesser importance, and newer data are given more importance. It is efficient in making short-term forecasts.
Explanation of Solution
Given information:
Forecast for period 1 (F1) = 90
Smoothing constant (α) = 0.1
| Period | Dt |
| 1 | 92 |
| 2 | 127 |
| 3 | 106 |
| 4 | 165 |
| 5 | 125 |
| 6 | 111 |
| 7 | 178 |
| 8 | 97 |
Formula for exponential smoothing:
Calculation of forecast:
The forecast for period 1 is 90.
Period 2:
The forecast for period 2 is 90.2.
Period 3:
The forecast for period 3 is 93.9.
Period 4:
The forecast for period 4 is 95.1.
Period 5:
The forecast for period 5 is 102.1.
Period 6:
The forecast for period 6 is 104.4.
Period 7:
The forecast for period 7 is 105.
Period 8:
The forecast for period 8 is 112.3.
b)
Expert Solution
Summary Introduction
To develop: The exponential smoothed forecast
Introduction:
Exponential smoothing:
In the exponential smoothing forecast method, older data are given lesser importance, and newer data are given more importance. It is efficient in making short-term forecasts.
Explanation of Solution
Given information:
Forecast for period 1 (F1) = 90
Smoothing constant (α) = 0.3
| Period | Dt |
| 1 | 92 |
| 2 | 127 |
| 3 | 106 |
| 4 | 165 |
| 5 | 125 |
| 6 | 111 |
| 7 | 178 |
| 8 | 97 |
Formula for exponential smoothing:
Calculation of forecast:
The forecast for period 1 is 90.
Period 2:
The forecast for period 2 is 90.6.
Period 3:
The forecast for period 3 is 101.5.
Period 4:
The forecast for period 4 is 102.9.
Period 5:
The forecast for period 5 is 121.5.
Period 6:
The forecast for period 6 is 122.6.
Period 7:
The forecast for period 7 is 119.1.
Period 8:
The forecast for period 8 is 136.8.
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Complete the forecasting worksheets for:
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ExponA using and alpha level of .75
ExponB will automatically be .25 when A is .75
Exponential Solver
What is the best alpha level as determined by the Exponential Solver?
Which is the best forecasting option for MAE? What is the MAE?
Which is the best forecasting option for MAPE? What is the MAPE?
Period
Sales
1
115
2
118
3
128
4
122
5
135
6
128
7
135
8
132
9
132
10
135
The manager of a travel agency asked you to come up with a forecasting technique that will best fit to the actual demand for packaged tours. You have observed and recorded the actual demand for the last 10 periods. You also identified two possible techniques for consideration: 2-month moving averages (F1), and exponential smoothing (F2) with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using Cumulative Forecasting Error (CFE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as your performance measures you will determine the technique that will best fit to the actual demand data provided in the following table.STEP 1: Given start forecast values in period 3, compute forecast values from period 4 to 10. You are asked to provide the forecast values for period 6 and 10 for both techniques.
2-Month MA
Exponential
Period
Demand
F1
F2
1
115
--
--
2
176
--
--
3
97
146
129
4
141
5
98
6
132
7
114
8
129
9
107…
Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend, orassociative) that would be most appropriate for predicting:c. Demand for vacations on the moon.
Chapter 10 Solutions
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
Ch. 10.S - Ace Hardware sells spare parts for lawn mowers....Ch. 10.S - eXcel The daily demand for chocolate donuts from...Ch. 10.S - The SureGrip Tire Company produces tires of...Ch. 10.S - eXcelManagement believes there is a seasonal...Ch. 10.S - Management of the ABC Floral Shop believes that...Ch. 10 - Prob. 1DQCh. 10 - What is the distinction between forecasting and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasting methods should be used...Ch. 10 - Describe the uses of qualitative, time-series, and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not...
Ch. 10 - Prob. 6DQCh. 10 - What are the advantages of exponential smoothing...Ch. 10 - How should the choice of be made for exponential...Ch. 10 - Prob. 9DQCh. 10 - Prob. 10DQCh. 10 - Explain how CPFR can be used to reduce forecasting...Ch. 10 - Under what circumstances might CPFR be useful, and...Ch. 10 - Daily demand for marigold flowers at a large...Ch. 10 - The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy...Ch. 10 - 3-The ABC Floral Shop sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - The Handy Dandy Department Store had forecast...Ch. 10 - 5-The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential...Ch. 10 - Using the data in problem 2, prepare exponentially...Ch. 10 - Compute the errors of bias and absolute deviation...Ch. 10 - eXcel At the ABC Floral Shop, an argument...Ch. 10 - Only a portion of the following table for...Ch. 10 - A candy store has sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - eXcel A grocery store sells the following number...Ch. 10 - Prob. 12PCh. 10 - The Easyfit tire store had demand for tires shown...Ch. 10 - Prob. 14P
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