Mylab Operations Management With Pearson Etext -- Access Card -- For Operations Management: Sustainability And Supply Chain Management (13th Edition)
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780135225899
Author: Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 59P
Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman’s electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below:
a.
b. Compute the MAD.
c. Compute the tracking signal.
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The manager of a travel agency asked you to come up with a forecasting technique that will best fit to the actual demand for packaged tours. You have observed and recorded the actual demand for the last 10 periods. You also identified two possible techniques for consideration: 2-month moving averages (F1), and exponential smoothing (F2) with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using Cumulative Forecasting Error (CFE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as your performance measures you will determine the technique that will best fit to the actual demand data provided in the following table.STEP 1: Given start forecast values in period 3, compute forecast values from period 4 to 10. You are asked to provide the forecast values for period 6 and 10 for both techniques.
2-Month MA
Exponential
Period
Demand
F1
F2
1
115
--
--
2
176
--
--
3
97
146
129
4
141
5
98
6
132
7
114
8
129
9
107…
Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for the past 12 weeks:
Week
1
2
3
4
6.
7
8
10
11
12
Actual Passenger Miles (in thousands)
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
15
22
a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use a = 0.2 (round your responses to two decimal places).
Week
1
2
3
4
6.
7
8
9.
10
11
12
Forecasted Passenger Miles
17.00 17.00 17.80 18.04 19.03 18.83 18.26
18.61
18.49 19.19
19.35
18.48
(in thousands)
b) The MAD for this model =
(round your response to two decimal places).
12-1. The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis-
St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the de-
mand for the Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next
month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the
data in the following table for the past year.
Month
January
February
March
April
Мay
June
Motorcycle Sales
7
10
8
7
12
July
August
September
10
11
12
October
10
November
December
14
16
a Compute a three-month moving average forecast of
demand for April through January (of the next year).
b. Compore a five-month moving average forecast for
June drough January.
c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and
(b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for
January of dhe next year?
Chapter 4 Solutions
Mylab Operations Management With Pearson Etext -- Access Card -- For Operations Management: Sustainability And Supply Chain Management (13th Edition)
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