Mylab Operations Management With Pearson Etext -- Access Card -- For Operations Management: Sustainability And Supply Chain Management (13th Edition)
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780135225899
Author: Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 16P
Solved example 4.1
Sales of Volkswagen’s popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). The sales manager had predicted before the new model was introduced that first year sales would be 410 VWs. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α =.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
| YEAR | SALES | |
| 1 | 450 | 410 |
| 2 | 495 | |
| 3 | 518 | |
| 4 | 563 | |
| 5 | 584 | |
| 6 | ? |
• 4.16 Refer to Solved Problem 4.1.
- a. Using the trend projection (regression) method, develop a forecast for the sales of Volkswagen Beetles in Nevada through year 6.
- b. What is the MAD?
- c. What is the MSE?
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Students have asked these similar questions
QUESTION 8
You are given the following information, comprising of an individual's expenses for the year
2015. Use the information provided hereunder to answer the following questions.
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Expenses
1977
820
970
1082
1220
1281
1546
1788
895
1108
1824
1954
a) Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period moving average. Calculate the
MAD and MSE.
b) Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period weighted moving average. Use
0.8 & 0.2 for the weights of the most recent and second most recent periods respectfully.
Calculate the MAD and MSE.
c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast using a=0.2. Assume the forecast for the first
month is the actual expenses for that month. Calculate the MAD and MSE.
d) Developed a trend line to forecast expenses
Question 3:
Jane is trying to forecast demand for her store, using moving average with n=2,
Fill in the missing cells with correct values and find average error for first quarter and second quarter of year
2000
E
Enroll-
Year
Quarter
ment
Forecast
Error
Abs Error
1997
313
3.
2
285
4
3
312
5.
4
339
6.
1998
1
359
7
320
356
385
6.
10
1999
396
367
11
397
12
423
13
14
2000
1
15
2000
3412M4
Q4
ABC University wants to develop forecasts for next year's quarterly enrollment. It has collected
quarterly enrollments for the past two years. It has also forecast total annual enrollment for next
year to be 95,000 students. What is the forecast for each quarter of next year?
Enrollment (in 000')
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Fall
24
25
Winter
23
22
Spring
18
19
Summer
15
17
Chapter 4 Solutions
Mylab Operations Management With Pearson Etext -- Access Card -- For Operations Management: Sustainability And Supply Chain Management (13th Edition)
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