Concept explainers
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.
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- a. Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of .6 and then with one of .9, to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
- b. Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6.
- c. Use the trend-projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6.
- d. With MAD as the criterion, which of the four
forecasting methods is best?
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Chapter 4 Solutions
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