Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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- Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows:arrow_forwardThe actual number of patients at Providence Emergency Medical Clinic for the first six weeks of this year follows: The value of the forecast is Week Actual No. of Patients 45 49 IT 56 40 44 55 Clinic administrator Dana Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient numbers at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this forecast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.333 on the present period, 0.250 one period ago, 0.250 two periods ago, and 0.167 three periods ago. a) What is the value of your forecast? patients (round your response to two decimal places). 123456arrow_forwardThe following table shows predicted product demand using your particular forecasting method along with the actual demand that occurred: FORECAST ACTUAL 1,480 1,530 1,380 1,480 1,680 1,580 1,730 1,780 1,630 1,680 Compute the tracking signal using the mean absolute deviation and running sum of forecast errors. Note: Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your "Mean Absolute Deviation", "Tracking Signal" to 2 decimal places and all other answers to the nearest whole number. Period Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE Absolute Deviation Sum of Absolute MAD TS Deviation 1 1,480 1,530 -50 -50 50 50 50.00 -1.00 2 1,380 1,480 -100 -150 100 150 75.00 -2.00 3 1,680 1,580 100 -50 100 250 83.33 -0.60 4 1,730 1,630 100 50 100 350 87.50 0.57 5 1,780 1,680 100 150 100 450 90.00 1.67arrow_forward
- K Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of gasoline, in thousands, demanded at a local gasoline station. Also shown are actual demand levels, in thousands of gallons: Week 1 2 3 4 Forecast Method 1 0.95 1.05 0.97 1.20 Actual Demand 0.68 1.05 0.96 1.00 Week 1 2 3 4 Forecast Method 2 0.82 1.21 0.88 1.17 The MAD for Method 1 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). Actual Demand 0.68 1.05 0.96 1.00 Save Darrow_forwardAssume Sandra's forecasted ADR for the night is $1600.99. What would be her estimated total room revenue for this day? ADR = Total room revenue / Number of rooms soldarrow_forwardDic 2 - Time Series Analysis and F eBook Problem 6-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Thm Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 13 15 11 19 13 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. a. Mean absolute error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place. b. Mean squared error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place. c. Mean absolute percentage error. If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places. % d. What is the forecast for week 7? If required, round your answer to two decimal place.arrow_forward
- The worksheet Hudson Demand Case Data in MindTap provides the number of visits over one year from January to December (52 weeks). Chart the data and explain the characteristics of the time series. How would you forecast future demand for customer visits? What criteria will you use to determine a “good” forecast? What methods would you use, and why? What is your final recommendation with respect to a forecasting method? Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.arrow_forwardGive typed explanation Part 2: Using exponential smoothing, the forecasted demand for period 5 using the smoothing constant determined in image= ?arrow_forwardThe following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 7 11 7 13 12 10 13 8 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. Part 2 b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places). Part 4 d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed…arrow_forward
- The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).arrow_forward14. The demand for Krispee Crunchies is experiencing a decline. The company wants to monitor demand for this product closely as it nears the end of its life cycle. The following table shows the actual sales history for January to October. Generate forecasts for November to December, using the trend projection with regression method. Looking at the accuracy of its forecasts in the Trend Projection Worksheet, as well as the other statistics provided, how confident are you in these forecasts for November to December? Month January February March April May June Sales 890,000 800,000 825,000 840,000 730,000 780,000 Month July August September October November December Sales 710,000 730,000 680,000 670,000arrow_forwardProblem 3arrow_forward
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