Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Simple exponential smoothing with α= 0.3 is being used to
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- The Yummy Ice Cream Company projects the demand for ice cream by using first-order exponential smoothing. Last week the forecast was 100,000 gallons of ice cream, and 90,000 gallons was actually sold. Using alpha=.1, prepare a forecast for next week. Calculate the forecast using Alpha=.2 and Alpha=.3 for this problem. Which values of Alpha gave the best forecast, assuming actual demand for next week ends up being 95,000 gallons?arrow_forwardA large cement manufacturer uses exponential smoothing to forecast demand for a piece of pollution-control equipment. It appears that an increasing trend is present.Month At1 700 2 685 3 648 4 717 5 713 6 728 7 754 8 762 If the initial forecast for month 1 was 650 units and the trend over that period was 0 units, calculate FIT for the 9-month period. Use smoothing constants, Alpha = 0.1 andAlpha = 0.2.arrow_forwardMark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances 3 3 8 5 8 6 Demand for Guitars 2 5 6 4 11 6 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): Y = + c) The estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV 11times = sales (round your response to two decimal places). d) The correlation coefficient (r)for this model = (round your response to four decimal places). The coefficient of determination (r2) for this model = (round your response to…arrow_forward
- A company sells wielding generators. The demand for periods 1 to 9 is 44,52,50,,54,55,55,60, 56 and 62. Develop a regression forecasting equation and forecast sales for period 15arrow_forwardAmazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month. Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options. F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft increase value of alpha decrease value of alpha stay with the same alpha decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft) On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond? a. Root MSE (RMSE) b. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) c. Mean forecast error (Avg. error) d. Cumulative forecast error (CFE)arrow_forwardThe number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows: CASES OF MERLOT WINE 276 362 YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 404 462 364 506 416 382 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.30, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.) Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Forecast for 2012 372arrow_forward
- In a retail store, the actual sales of a particular product (in thousands of units) over the past few months are as follows: Month Sales 1 16 2 22 3 18 4 20 5 23 Using exponential smoothing method with α (smoothing constant) of 0.75 and the given forecast for month 1 equal to 10, what is the forecast for month 6?arrow_forwardMark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances Demand for Guitars Y = This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): + 4 2 X 5 7 5 9 7 6 7 6 10 7arrow_forwardMedium-term forecasts are used for making medium-term decisions related to planning for new products, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and research and development. True Falsearrow_forward
- Forecasting The manager of a popular tourist resort wants to use the manual trend projection forecasting technique and exponential smoothing without trend to forecast room occupancy at the resort for the next 4 years. Using a numerical example, demonstrate how these techniques can be used to do the forecast.arrow_forwardDoes double exponential smoothing always forecast better than simple exponential smoothing when we suppose that there is a increasing or decreasing trend.arrow_forwardMark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances 3 4 8 6 7 7 Demand for Guitars 4 6 7 5 10 6 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. Part 2 b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): Y = enter your response here + enter your response herexarrow_forward
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