The worksheet Hudson Demand Case Data in MindTap provides the number of visits over one year from January to December (52 weeks). Chart the data and explain the characteristics of the time series. How would you forecast future demand for customer visits? What criteria will you use to determine a “good” forecast? What methods would you use, and why? What is your final recommendation with respect to a forecasting method?

Below is the actual demand for electrical boxes for Abco Electric for the last nine periods along with a forecast. A) Complete the Mean Absolute Deviation for this forecast. B) Complete an additional forecast for periods 4-12 using a weighted moving average of your choice. Change the title to describe your method. C) Calculate the MAD for your forecast. D) In the text box below put your comment comparing the accuracy of your forecast versus the one given in A. Was your method more accurate? Why or why not? Use whole numbers for all forecasts. Use ONE decimal place for the MAD calculations. Period Demand Naïve Method Error (e) MAD Your Title here Your MAD 1 855     Abs e   Abs e 2 910           3 930           4 890 930         5 935 890         6 980 935         7 1020 980         8 960 1020         9 905 960         10 895 905         11 955 895         12 820 955         MAD             D. Your comment on Forecast Accuracy:

Briefly describe the steps that are used to develop a forecasting system. Using a forecasting problem, illustrate each of these steps. Which step do you think is most important? Why?

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Justify the trade-off between responsiveness and consistency in a time-series forecasting system.

To have a stable forecasting tool when using the simple moving average method, what value of N (the number of periods) should a firm choose among the following choices? a. 3b. 2c. 8d. 6

Given the table below, complete the missing cell values applying the Exponential Smoothing method of forecasting and Mean Absolute Deviation. Answer also the other 2 related questions below the table. Numbers with decimal should take 2 decimal places. Actual Quarter Tonnage Unloaded 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 175 160 170 160 160 170 180 200 Forecast for a=3 175 175.0 170.5 167.2 165.1 166.6 170.6 Sum of absolute deviation = Absolute Deviation for a = .3 Other questions: (1) What is the MAD for a = .3? (2) Which smoothing constant would you prefer? 0.00 15.00 0.50 10.35 4.93 13.45 29.41 80.89 Forecast for a = .6 175 166.0 168.4 163.4 161.3 166.5 174.6 Absolute Deviation for a = .6 0.00 15.00 4.00 8.40 3.36 8.66 13.46 25.38

Describe when to use of a time series forecasting techniques and what assumption are made?

Forecasting time horizons include:a) long range. b) medium range.c) short range. d) all of the choices.

Using the photo attached, answer the following questions. 1. using the manual trend projection method of forecasting, show how Mr John can forecast demand for tyres for the next two years. SHOW ALL WORKING NO EXCEL SHEETS NO HAND WRITTEN ANSWERS, TYPE IT!