The actual number of patients at Providence Emergency Medical Clinic for the first six weeks of this year follows:The value of the forecast isWeek Actual No. of Patients4549IT56404455Clinic administrator Dana Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient numbers at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this forecast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of0.333 on the present period, 0.250 one period ago, 0.250 two periods ago, and 0.167 three periods ago.a) What is the value of your forecast?patients (round your response to two decimal places).123456

Forecasting is one of the techniques to know some future figures on the basis of past data. This…

Answered: Clinic administrator Dana Schniederjans…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Give typed explanation Part 2: Using exponential smoothing, the forecasted demand for period 5 using the smoothing constant determined in image= ?
The following monthly sales of chocolate boxes (in thousands of AUS dollars) have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 9.5, 8, 9, 9. Examining the forecasting accuracy for the month of April only: Explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend: (i) the Naïve method, (ii) the Average method, or (iii) the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha= 0.8 and initial state (in December) of 8.5)?
Period 1 2 3 4 5 New Accounts Period 201 215 212 229 236 6 7 8 9 10 New Accounts Period 233 249 253 254 268 11 12 13 14 15 New Accounts 282 276 281 289 311
Following table shows the monthly sales of X-box consoles at a retail store in Kuwait: Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show your calculations. a. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on 3 period moving average? b. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on exponential smoothing with α =0.2? c. Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE?
Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period 5. Let α = 0.1, β = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200 (both are given in the table). (a) Complete the table below and to predict the demand for Period 5 (See image). Show the calculations for the demand for Period 2. (b) Based on the actual demands of the first 4 periods forecast the demand for period 5 using the linear regression method. (c) Which method performs better based on the actual demand for period 5? Why do you think so?
a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. c) compute the forecast for the week of Oct 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for august 31 of 360 and alpha 0.2
The Toro Cutlery Company has collected monthly sales information below: MONTH January February March April The company is examining two forecasting methods, moving average and exponential smoothing for forecasting sales. a. What will the forecast be for January the following year using a three-, four-, and five-month moving averages? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest whole number. Forecast (January, 3-month MA): 87667 Forecast (January, 4-month MA): 72500 Forecast (January, 5-month MA): 69600 b. What will the forecast be for January the following year using exponential smoothing with a = 0.6? Assume the forecast for February this year is 25,000. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest whole number. SALES 25,000 18,000 43,000 110,000 MONTH May June July August SALES MONTH 84,000 September 28,000 October 97,000 November 58,000 December SALES 27,000 105,000 82,000 76,000
Describe why such forecasting devices as moving average , weighted averages and exponential smoothing are not well suited for data series that have trends ?
Forecasting The manager of a popular tourist resort wants to use the manual trend projection forecasting technique and exponential smoothing without trend to forecast room occupancy at the resort for the next 4 years. Using a numerical example, demonstrate how these techniques can be used to do the forecast.
2
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 Value 18 13 (a) Construct a time series plot. 20T 18 16- 14- Time Series Value O Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 What type of pattern exists in the data? O The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. O The data appear to follow a trend pattern. 8 6 O The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. O The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. Week 1 2 0 1 3 4 5 6 18 13 15 12 (b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Time Series Value 16 14 18 + 2 13 15 4 5 6 15 12 16 3 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? 12 16 4 14 Week (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Series Value 5 14 Forecast 6 Forecast 7 20 18 16 14 12 WE 10 2 + 7 @o 20 18 0 1 2 3 4 Week 5 6 00 0 1 2 3 4 5 Week 6 7…
For the data set Download data set, perform exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.1 to determine the forecast for week 20 (click on the arrow to download the file). Be sure to label the forecasted value for week 20. You must show all work in an Excel file and upload the Excel file. Gasoline data set week Sales (1000s of gallons) 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 13 31 14 34 15 31 16 33 17 28 18 32 19 30

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