Discuss Time Series Analysis. Provide an Introduction, Overview, Sub topics, working examples and a conclusion.
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Discuss Time Series Analysis. Provide an Introduction, Overview, Sub topics, working examples and a conclusion.
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- Define Time Series Analysis? how is it used?Compute the seasonal relatives for this data using the SA method. Please show the work, not just the answer. See the screen shot for details.A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales. Historical data (in dollars) for fifteen weeks are shown below. Use Excel and the Moving Average template to answer the following questions. Time Period Observation 1 1,575 2 1,568 3 1,454 4 1,400 5 1,220 6 1,384 7 1,602 8 1,315 9 1,376 10 1,515 11 1,346 12 1,588 13 1,674 14 1,564 15 1,378 Plot the data and provide insights about the time series. The correct graph is . A. B. C. D. What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. 2-period MA 3-period MA MSE
- The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a plant in Taiwan during the past 5 years follows: a) Forecast the number of disk drives to be made next year, using linear regression.b) Compute the mean squared error (MSE) when using linear regression.c) Compute the mean absolute percent error {MAPE).Which is better forecasting or benchmarking? Be practical.What are the advantages and disadvantages of aggregating demand from a forecasting view? Are there other things that should be considered when going from multiple DCs to a DC?
- The table below shows the sales of widgets (in units) over the past 5 years. Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.2, what is the forecast for next year? The initial forecast (for 5 years ago) was 1,200 units. Forecast: Time Sales 5 years ago 1,140 4 years ago 1,220 3 years ago 1,450 2 years ago 1,090 Last year 1,150 (Do not round intermediate calculations, round your final answer to the nearest whole number.)What are the benefits of exponential smoothing over moving average forecasting?5. (a) When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to a profit and loss statement. What type of forecasting information do you suppose would be required? (b) A picnic spot is open on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The manager hopes to improve resource availability and scheduling of part-time employees by forecasting visitors in the next week. Data on visitors of the recent 5 weeks at the spot has been found. On Saturday, Thursday, and Friday there were 182. 95, and 280 in week 1; 197, 105, and 295 in week2; 178, 92, and 275 in week 3; 210, 109, and 305 in week 4; and 192, 100. and 284 in week 5. i. Find seasonal relatives of the days. ii. Forecast number of visitors in the resort for week 6 and that is for the days of week 6.