Find the EVPI for the below Payoff table: State of nature 1 2 3 Probabilit y 0.3 0.4 0.3 Acts B A C 20 -20 -50 0 200 -100 -50 400 600 30 0
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- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: percent defective probability for winter park probability for technology dayton enterprise 1% 0.65 0.25 3% 0.25 0.25 5% 0.10 0.50 For example the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Winter park technology is 0.65. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean there is a 0.65 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Winter park technology is used to fill the order. A defectice breathalyzer test can be repaired for $0.50. Although the quality of the…Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
- The matrix of transition probabilities below deals with brand loyalty to CoronaBits and CovidBits junk food. Current Next Purchase Purchase CoronaBits CovidBits CoronaBits .75 25 CovidBits 20 .80 What are the steady state probabilities? O [3/4 1/4] O [ 2/3 1/3] O [4/9 5/9] O [1/2 1/2]3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationThe Valley Wine Company purchases grapes from either of two nearby grape growers each season to produce a particular red wine. It purchases enough grapes to produce 3000 bottles of the wine. Each grower supplies a certain portion of poor quality grapes, resulting in a percentage of bottles being used as fillers for cheaper table wines according to the following probability distribution. Probability of Percent Defective Defective (%) Grower A Grower B 2 .15 .30 4 .20 .30 6 .25 .20 8 .30 .10 10 .10 .10 The two growers charge a different prices for their grapes and because of differences in taste, the company charges different prices for their wine depending on which grapes they use. The annual profit from the wine produced from each grower's grapes for each percentage defective is as follows. PROFIT DEFECTIVE GROWER A GROWER B 2% $44,200 $42,600 4 40,200 40,300 6 36,200 38,000 8 32,200 35,700 10 28,200 33,400 Use decision-tree…
- 1. Which of the following Risk Management Processes covers the determination of the likelihood and consequence of risks identified on the effective and efficient pursuit of business activities? Group of answer choices Risk mitigation and avoidance Risk monitoring None of the choices Risk identification Risk qualification and prioritizationThe number of yearly breakdowns for the power generator observed over the past 20 years at Orlando Utilities is presented in the following data: Number of breakdowns Number of years in which breakdowns occurred For Orlando Utilities, the expected number of breakdowns (round your response to two decimal places). 0 2 = 1 3 2 5 3 5 4 3 5 1 6 1 DA company specifies that, at receiving inspection, a random sample equal to 10% of the lot size will be drawn and inspected. If one or more units are nonconforming, the remaining of the whole lot must be screened (100% inspected). The cost of screening is charged to the supplier. Supplier A ships in lots of 500 units; supplier B, in lots of 1,000 units. What is the probability of acceptance for each supplier if the lots contain 0.3% nonconforming product? Do you think the company’s sampling plan is fair to its suppliers? Why or why not?
- The matrix of transition probabilities below deals with brand loyalty to CoronaBits and CovidBits junk food. What is the probability that a CoronaBits customer will switch brands on the next purchase after a large number of periods? O 2/9 O 4/9 О 5/9 3/4The mayor of a town believes that more than 72% of the residents favor construction of an adjoining community. Is there sufficient evidence at the 0.05level to support the mayor's claim? State the null and alternative hypotheses for the above scenario.Given the following product with 6 independent components (numbers represent lifetime component reliabilities): 0.06098 0.04248 0.0008364 0.04098 0.9390 0.98 The value of Q for the product = 0.9575 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47