Benjamin Moses, chief engineer of Offshore Chemicals, Inc., must decide whether to build a new processing facility based on an experimental technology. If the new facility works, the company will realize a net profit of $20 million. If the new facility fails, the company will lose $10 million. Benjamin’s best guess is that there is a 40 percent chance that the new facility will work. What decision should Benjamin Moses make?

Cliff Branch’s firm was trying to decide if it should submit a proposal for Project 1,Project 2, both projects, or neither project. Cliff’s firm will win the contract for Project 1, which is estimated to be worth $300,000 in profits with 20 percent probability (p = 0.2). There is an 80 percent probability (P = 0.80) that the firm will not win the contract for Project 1, and the outcome is estimated to be $40,000 in loss. Suppose there is a 20 percent probability that Cliff’s firm will lose $50,000 on Project 2, a 10 percent probability that it will lose $20,000, and a 70 percent probability that it will earn $60,000. Draw a decision tree diagram and calculate the EMV for each project. Write a paragraph explaining which projects Cliff’s firm should bid on. Be sure to use the EMV information and your personal risk tolerance to justify your answer. [Show the details of your work]

An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry , reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found.           Decision Dry (D) Reasonably good(G) Bonanza(B) Drill $0 $85 $200 m Abandon $0 $0 $0 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.4     Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings ( at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either “no structure”, “open structure or “closed structure”. The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance.     Note that if the test result is “no structure” the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m, otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself.…

Cachora Dynamics Corp (CDC) has designed a new integrated circuit that will allow it to enter, if it wishes, the microcomputer field. Otherwise, it can sell its rights for $15 million. If it chooses to build computers, the profitability of this project depends on the company's ability to market them during the first year. Two levels of sales are foreseen as two possible outcomes: selling 10,000 computers in case of low demand, but if it is successful it can sell up to 100,000 units (high demand). The cost of installing the production line is $6 million. The difference between the selling price and the variable cost of each computer is $600. a) Develop a formulation for decision analysis and use the non-probabilistic decision rules: Maximin and Minimax.  b) Assume that the probability of high demand (p) is 50% and for low demand (1 - p) is 50%, apply the probabilistic criteria: Maximum expected value, Minimum loss of opportunity. c) Determine the VEIP.  d) Carry out a sensitivity…

A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $50,000 or to large size to earn $100,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and earn $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large…

Scenario One: An 86-year widow comes in monthly to have her blood drawn and monitored ever since her heart attack 2 years ago. Her husband has recently passed away and she has no family nearby to help her. She has Medicare but does not have supplemental insurance to cover office visits. When leaving the office today, she starts to cry and tell you that she can no longer afford her blood pressure medications, cholesterol medications, blood work, and office visits each month. She will not be able to get her medications refilled unless she sees the doctor and has blood work each month. She currently owes $180 on her account today. Scenario 2: A 19-year-old mother of 3 children, all under the age of 5, brings in all of the kids today for their recommended check-ups and vaccinations. She does not have insurance for any of the children as she was denied Medicaid based on a previous fraud. She has been diligent paying for the children’s healthcare, with assistance from a grandmother, but she…

Suppose that the management of Theme Park, Inc., has decided that there is a.35 probability that the motel’s application will be approved.a. If management uses maximum expected monetary value as the decision criterion, which alternative should it choose?b. Represent this problem in the form of a decision tree.c. If management has been offered the option of a temporary lease while the town planning boardconsiders the motel’s application, would you advise management to sign the lease? The leasewill cost $24,000.

A payoff table is given as:   S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600   (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?

1.  Kirsten is trying to decide where to go for her well-earned vacation. She would like to camp, but if the weather is bad, she will have to go to a motel. Given the costs and probabilities of bad weather given below, which destination should she choose?   Camping cost Motel cost Probability of bad weather Nevada $21.2 $80.9 0.2 Oregon $15.9 $84.6 0.4 California $30 $95 0.1   a. California, because its EMV = $33.14 b. Nevada, because its EMV = $33.14 c. California, because its EMV = $36.5 d. Any of the 3 choices. e. Oregon, because its EMV = $43.38 f. Nevada, because its EMV = $43.38 g. None of the 3 choices. h. Oregon, because its EMV is $36.50.

Joel Deaine, CEO of Deaine Enterprises Incorporated (DEI), is considering a special offer to manufacture a new line of women’s clothing for a large department store chain. DEI has specialized in designer women’s clothing sold in small, upscale retail clothing stores throughout the country. To protect the very elite brand image, DEI has not sold clothing to large department stores. The current offer, however, might be too good to turn down. The department store is willing to commit to a large order, which would be very profitable to DEI, and the order would be renewed automatically for two more years, presumably to continue after that point.   Required: Explain two of the implementation tools covered in this chapter that Joel can use to implement his strategy.