Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option I uses two local suppliers. Each hasa " unique-event" risk of 5%, and the probability of a " superevent"that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a "unique-event" risk of 13%, and the probability of a"super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimatedto be 0.2%.a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option I?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?

Phillip​ Witt, president of Witt Input​ Devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. Suppose that Phillip is willing to use one local supplier and up to two more located in other territories within the country. This would reduce the probability of a​ "super-event" that might shut down all suppliers at the same time at least 2 weeks to 0.5​%, but due to increased distance the annual costs for managing each of the distant suppliers would be ​$25,000 ​(still ​$15 comma 000 for the local​ supplier). A total shutdown would cost the company approximately ​$400,000. He estimates the​ "unique-event" risk for any of the suppliers to be 5​%. Assuming that the local supplier would be the first one​ chosen, how many suppliers should Witt Input Devices​ use? Find the EMV for alternatives using​ 1, 2, or 3 suppliers. ​EMV(1)equals=​$ ​(Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole​number.) ​EMV(2)equals=​$ ​(Enter your response rounded to the nearest…

Scenario One: An 86-year widow comes in monthly to have her blood drawn and monitored ever since her heart attack 2 years ago. Her husband has recently passed away and she has no family nearby to help her. She has Medicare but does not have supplemental insurance to cover office visits. When leaving the office today, she starts to cry and tell you that she can no longer afford her blood pressure medications, cholesterol medications, blood work, and office visits each month. She will not be able to get her medications refilled unless she sees the doctor and has blood work each month. She currently owes $180 on her account today. Scenario 2: A 19-year-old mother of 3 children, all under the age of 5, brings in all of the kids today for their recommended check-ups and vaccinations. She does not have insurance for any of the children as she was denied Medicaid based on a previous fraud. She has been diligent paying for the children’s healthcare, with assistance from a grandmother, but she…

Decision theory under conditions of risk and uncertainty lends itself to severalmathematical techniques. Examine the difference maximin decision criterion and minimax regret decision criterion.

Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: Percent Defective Probability for Winter Park Probability for Dayton 1% 3% 5% .70 .20 .10 .30 .30 .40 Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order. A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. When determining the costs for each branch (Decision Tree), utilize the number per order (*) the percent defective (*) the repair cost. a. What is the EMV for Winter Park? $ [Select ] b. What is the EMV for Dayton? $$127 c. What choice should Deborah Kellogg make? [Select] >

Andrew Thomas, a sandwich vendor at hard rock café annual rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and state of nature (size of crowd) Alternatives Large stock average stock small stock probabilities associated with states of nature are Big Big 35000 20000 10500 0.3 State of nature (demand) Average Small 15000 10000 8000 Average 0.5 determine the alternative that gives Andrew the greatest expected monetary value (EMV) compute the extpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Small -3000 5000 3000 0.2

Demonstrate the steps to solve this question: Advanced Electronics manufactures DVDs and sells them directly to retailers who typically sell them for $20. Retailers take a 40 percent margin based on the retail selling price. Advanced’s cost information is as follows:DVD package and disc            €2.50/DVDRoyalties                                  €2.25/DVDAdvertising and promotion     €500,000Overhead                                 €200,000 Calculate the break-even volume in DVD units and euros.

Build-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be​ unpredictable, so​ Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But​ Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more​ employees, do​ nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors.​ Build-Rite has developed the following payoff​ table:

Value Chain A factory owner in Bangladesh, Tipu Munshi, manufactures clothing for Walmartand other retailers around the world. One of Tipu’s products is a pair of jeans sold to Asda, a Walmartsubsidiary in Britain, which sells the jeans for $US 22.12. Asda Stores Ltd. is the third-largest retailerin the UK, focusing on food, clothing, and general merchandise. Tipu completes each set of jeansat an average cost for materials, labor, and other factory costs plus $0.26 profit, for a total of $7.29each to Asda. The jeans are then shipped to Asda by Li & Fung, a Hong Kong company, for $4.33 perpair. Finally, Asda adds an additional $10.50 of cost and profit, thus arriving at the selling price of$22.12 per pair of jeans.Required Identify the value chain for the Asda jeans. As a manager at Asda, explain how you would usethe value chain to improve the competitiveness and profitability of the business.

Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $290,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $253,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $220,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $35,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will…