A local real estate investor in Kingston is considering three investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theatre. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourist; Profits from the theatre will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Avaliability) Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Motel $8,000 $15,000 $22,000 Restaurant $2,000 $8000 $6,000 Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 If the probability of a shortage of gasoline is 25%, the probability of a stable supply of gasoline is 45% and the probability of a surplus of gasoline is 30%. Using the EMV, What option should the real estate investor choose and what is that optimal expected value? What is the most the real estate investor would be willing to pay for additional information. Use Minimum expected regret (Minimum EOL)
A local real estate investor in Kingston is considering three investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theatre. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourist; Profits from the theatre will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Avaliability) Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Motel $8,000 $15,000 $22,000 Restaurant $2,000 $8000 $6,000 Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 If the probability of a shortage of gasoline is 25%, the probability of a stable supply of gasoline is 45% and the probability of a surplus of gasoline is 30%. Using the EMV, What option should the real estate investor choose and what is that optimal expected value? What is the most the real estate investor would be willing to pay for additional information. Use Minimum expected regret (Minimum EOL)
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 30P
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A local real estate investor in Kingston is considering three investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theatre. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourist; Profits from the theatre will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment:
Real Estate Investor Payoff Table
|
Payoffs are Profits |
||
|
States of Nature (Gasoline Avaliability) |
||
Decision Alternatives |
Shortage |
Stable Supply |
Surplus |
Motel |
$8,000 |
$15,000 |
$22,000 |
Restaurant |
$2,000 |
$8000 |
$6,000 |
Theater |
$6,000 |
$6,000 |
$5,000 |
- If the probability of a shortage of gasoline is 25%, the probability of a stable supply of gasoline is 45% and the probability of a surplus of gasoline is 30%. Using the EMV, What option should the real estate investor choose and what is that optimal expected value?
- What is the most the real estate investor would be willing to pay for additional information. Use Minimum expected regret (Minimum EOL)
- Use the Alternative method to verify EVPI
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