Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. B.Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each product.
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QUESTION A
The Miramar Company is going to introduce one of three new products: a widget, a hummer, or a nimnot. The market conditions (favorable, stable, or unfavorable) will determine the profit or loss the company realizes, as shown in the following payoff table:
State of Nature
Favourable Stable Unfavourable
Product 0.2 0.7 0.1
Widget $ 120,000 $ 70,000 $ –30,000
Hummer 60,000 40,000 20,000
Nimnot 35,000 30,000 30,000
- Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. B.Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each product.
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Decision Table with Conditional Values for Happy Company: Product Market Condition and Payoff (RM) Favourable Stable Unfavourable 8,000 5,000 7,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 -5,000 -1,200 -1,000 A В C Do Nothing Probability 0.4 0.3 0.3 Opportunity loss table for Happy Company.: MARKET CONDITION AND PAYOFF (RM) MAXIMUM IN PRODUCT FAVOURABLE STABLE UNFAVOURABLE A ROW (RM) 5,000 5,000 3,000 A 3,000 3,000 1,200 1,000 8,000 1,000 1,000 Do Nothing Probability 8,000 6,000 0.3 0.4 0.3 Based on the above data answer the following questions: (a) Construct the expected opportunity loss table for Happy Sdn. Bhd. (b) State the best decision (value and product) under EOL method.
- QUESTION 2 Searching for ways to cut costs and increase profit, one of the industrial engineers at Home Comfort Furniture Manufacturers, Inc. determined that the equivalent annual worth of an existing machine over its remaining useful life of 2 years is $-65,000 per year. The IE also determined that used machines like the one currently in use are not available any longer, but the defender can be replaced with a challenger that is more advanced. It will have an AW of $-78,550 if it is kept for 2 years or less, $-72,075 if it is kept between 3 and 4 years, and $-65,000 if it is kept for 5 to 10 years. If the company uses a specified 3-year planning horizon and an interest rate of 14% per year. Using Replacement Study, select: a. Replace now with challenger for all 3 years b. Keep the defender for 2 years and then replace it with the challenger for 1 year c. Keep the defender for 1 years and then replace it with the challenger for 2 yearsQUESTION 4 The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose$35,000. In the past, similar products have been successful 60% of the time. At a cost of $5,000,3 the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable and Nitro markets the product, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable and Nitro markets the product, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. Use a decision tree to determine how to maximize this company’s expected profit. (Draw the decision tree for this problem; determine Nitro’s optimal strategy, and the expected profit.)Problem 3-11 Future Value of Reduced Spending [LO3-4] Brenda plans to reduce her spending by $80 a month. Calculate the future value of this increase in savings over the next 10 years. (Assume an annual deposit to her savings account, and an annual interest rate of 4 percent.) (Exhibit 1-A, Exhibit 1-B, Exhibit 1-C, Exhibit 1-D) Note: Use appropriate factor(s) from the tables provided. Round time value factor to 3 decimal places and final answer to 2 decimal places. Future value
- Question 6 A Discrete Probability Distribution is given below: Class A B с D Probability (%) 18 33 27 22 Calculate the probability that class A does NOT occur. Express your answer as a whole number without the percentage sign (%). AMain Street Cinema invited three firms to bid on its daily janitorial services contract, and then scored those bids (also known as 'tenders') based on quality, reliability/risk and price (using a 100 point scale in each case). The results are listed here: Tender Offer from... Quality Score Reliability/ Risk Price Score Score Dawson Commercial 80 80 90 Cleaning Services Fulton Maintenance 90 70 100 and Facilities Service SteadyBrite Contract 85 85 85 Cleaning Assume that quality and price are equally important to Main Street Cinema. However, the issue of reliability/risk is twice as important to Main Street Cinema then either quality or price. Which janitorial service supplier does linear averaging suggest? O A. Dawson Commercial Cleaning Services and Dawson Commercial Cleaning Services O B. Dawson Commercial Cleaning Services C. Dawson Commercial Cleaning Services O D. SteadyBrite Contract Cleaning E. Fulton Maintenance and Facilities Service and SteadyBrite Contract CleaningQ The manager of a fast food restaurant featuring hamburgers is adding salads to the menu. For each of the two new options, the price to the customer will be the same. The MAKE option is to install a salad bar stocked with vegetables, fruits and toppings and let the customer assemble the salad. The salad bar would have to be leased and a part-time employee hired. The manager estimates the fixed cost at $12000 and variable costs totalling $1.5 per salad. The BUY option is to have pre-assembled salads available for sale. They would be purchased from a local supplier at $2 per salad. However, offering pre-assembled salads would require installation and operation of additional refrigeration, with fixed annual cost of $2400. What is the rational decision if A) the manager expects to sell 25000 salads per year and B) the manager expects to sell 18000 salads
- Geoff Gullo owns a small firm that manufactures “Gullo Sunglasses.” He has the opportunity to sell a particular seasonal model to Land’s Start, a catalog retailer. Geoff offersLand’s Start two purchasing options.• Option 1: Geoff offers to set his price at $65 and agrees to credit Land’s Start $53 foreach unit Land’s Start returns to Geoff at the end of the season (because those unitsdid not sell). Because styles change each year, there is essentially no value in thereturned merchandise.• Option 2: Geoff offers a price of $55 for each unit, but returns are no longer accepted.In this case, Land’s Start throws out unsold units at the end of the season.This season’s demand for this model will be normally distributed with a mean of 200and a standard deviation of 125. Land’s Start will sell those sunglasses for $100 each.Geoff’s unit production cost is $25.a. How much would Land’s Start buy if it chose option 1? b. How much would Land’s Start buy if it chose option 2? c. Which option will…Please no written by hand solutions QUESTION 10 10. "Enter our competition and you could win your share of R500 online shopping voucher for yourself AND a R10 000 voucher towards a Women's empowerment NGO of your choice!" Mrs Jacobs entered the competition above at Mr Price and won a R500 voucher. With R500, she can either buy a handbag, a pair of shoes, a pair of jeans or jacket. She already has a jacket, and she does not want new shoes. She would like a pair of jeans but decides to buy a handbag. What is her opportunity cost? a)R500 voucher. b) Handbag C)Pair of shoes. d)Pair of jeans.QUESTION SIX Consider the following payoff table. STATE OF NATURE S₁ S₂ S3 S₁ S5 So D₁ 7 6 9 11 10 12 D₂ 8 7 12 7 6 10 D₂ 12 10 6 8 9 12 Decision Alternative D₂ 7 14 11 6 7 11 D₂ 5 6 8 10 11 13 D₂ 9 12 12 9 8 If the decision maker is facing conditions of uncertainly, what decision would be made using? (a) Laplace criterion? (b) Maximin criterion? (c) Maximax criterion? (d) Savage criterion? (e) Hurwicz criterion? Use = 0.6. N
