A drug company is planning to invest in a new drug. The cost of research has a uniform distribution on $300,000 to $500,000. There is a 40% chance that the drug will not be effective, in which case there will be no sales. If the drug is effective, then the total market for the drug is 400,000 people. The company expects their share of the market to have a triangular distribution with minimum 5%, maximum 30%, and most likely 20% of the people. For each person who uses the new drug, the company expects to make $100 in sales during the first year. The drug company would like to know the distribution of profit they can expect from undertaking this investment.

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
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Question
1.
4 Input Modeling in Drug Development
Cost of Drug Development
Revenue
6.
Effectiveness
Market Share
Revenue per person
Number of People
9.
10
Cost
Total Revenue
11
12
13
Total Profit
14 A drug company is planning to invest in a new drug. The cost of research has a uniform distribution
15 on $300,000 to $500,000. There is a 40% chance that the drug will not be effective, in which case
16 there will be no sales. If the drug is effective, then the total market for the drug is 400,000 people.
The company expects their share of the market to have a triangular distribution with minimum 5%,
maximum 30%, and most likely 20% of the people. For each person who uses the new drug, the
20 company expects to make $100 in sales during the first year. The drug company would like to know
the distribution of profit they can expect from undertaking this investment.
17
18
19
21
22
23
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25
Transcribed Image Text:1. 4 Input Modeling in Drug Development Cost of Drug Development Revenue 6. Effectiveness Market Share Revenue per person Number of People 9. 10 Cost Total Revenue 11 12 13 Total Profit 14 A drug company is planning to invest in a new drug. The cost of research has a uniform distribution 15 on $300,000 to $500,000. There is a 40% chance that the drug will not be effective, in which case 16 there will be no sales. If the drug is effective, then the total market for the drug is 400,000 people. The company expects their share of the market to have a triangular distribution with minimum 5%, maximum 30%, and most likely 20% of the people. For each person who uses the new drug, the 20 company expects to make $100 in sales during the first year. The drug company would like to know the distribution of profit they can expect from undertaking this investment. 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25
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