Use the expected value approach to decide whether to market the new product. Because of the high dollar values involved, especially the possibility of a $100,000 loss, the marketing vice president has expressed some concern about the use of the expected value approach. As a consequence, if a utility analysis is performed, what is the appropriate lottery? Assume that the following indifference probabilities are assigned. Do the utilities reflect the behavior of a risk taker or a risk avoider?

Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies and Tactics (MindTap Course List)
14th Edition
ISBN:9781305506381
Author:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris
Publisher:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris
Chapter2: Fundamental Economic Concepts
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 7E
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  1. A new product has the following profit projections and associated probabilities:

Profit

Probability

$150,000

0.10

$100,000

0.25

$ 50,000

0.20

$0

0.15

-$ 50,000

0.20

-$100,000

0.10

 

  1. Use the expected value approach to decide whether to market the new product.
  2. Because of the high dollar values involved, especially the possibility of a $100,000 loss, the marketing vice president has expressed some concern about the use of the expected value approach. As a consequence, if a utility analysis is performed, what is the appropriate lottery?
  3. Assume that the following indifference probabilities are assigned. Do the utilities reflect the behavior of a risk taker or a risk avoider?

 

Profit

Indifference Probability

$100,000

0.95

$ 50,000

0.70

$0

0.50

-$ 50,000

0.25

 

 

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