2. Block Commodities has gathered the following information concerning rock salt deliveries (tons)to its clients, which it believes are highly seasonal:MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustYear 1 Year 27634483465339819720110170754835222328.145September 181October190November 100December 81Total.910Year 3953412351223510916222011087903 913Year 4117525625110281201451809888920AverageMonthly90.754237.75295.25531118.171.25197.75102.2581.5a. Suppose Block Commodities calculated a set of seasonal relatives to express thismonthly variation in rock salt deliveries, using this set of data. What would the value ofthe seasonal relative for the month of each month?b. Block Commodities believes that this year will be a busy year for rock salt deliveries,forecasting a total of 1,200 tons to be delivered during the year. Using this annualforecast and Block's set of seasonal relatives, what would be a logical forecast for Mayof next year? What would be a logical forecast for October of next year?

The forecast is an estimation of future events so that risk faced by the company will be reduced and…

Answered: 2. Block Commodities has gathered the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter7: Nonlinear Optimization Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 56P

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8. Block Commodities has gathered the following information concerning rock salt deliveries to its clients, which it believes are highly seasonal: Дусгаge Monthly 83.5 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 January February 84 78 80 70 100 65 50 80 68.25 March 66 70 50 50 59 April May June July August September 50 October November 200 December 15 25 20 30 22.5 10 15 20 10 13.75 13.75 13.75 20 10 10 15 10 15 20 10 20 180 50 10 30 40 60 170 190 210 150 200 120 110 180 172.5 150 200 180 120 200 150 170 Total Annual 923 955 950 920 a. Suppose Block Commodities calculated a set of seasonal relatives to express this monthly variation in rock salt deliveries, using this set of data. What would be the value of the seasonal relative for the month of July? What would be the value of the seasonal relative for the month of December? b. Block Commodities believes that this year will be a busy year for rock salt deliveries, forecasting a total of 1,200 tons to be delivered during the year. Using this annual…
7. Block Commodities has gathered the following information concerning rock salt deliveries to its clients, which it believes are highly seasonal: (Noteshaper Scenarios #31) Month Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Avg Monthly January 75 76 95 117 90.6 February 48 34 34 52 42.0 March 35 48 12 56 37.8 April 22 34 35 25 29.0 May 2 12 1 5.3 June 3 10 5.0 July 28 33 35 28 31.0 August 145 98 109 120 118.2 September 181 197 162 145 171.1 October 190 201 220 180 197.8 November 100 101 110 98 102.3 December 81 70 87 88 81.6 Total 910 904 913 920 a) What is the value of the seasonal relative for July and December? b) Block Commodities believes that next year it will deliver 1,200 tons of rock salt (up from the approximately 900 delivered in past years). Using the seasonal relatives, forecast the demand in tons of rock salt for May and October of next year.
Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Yarena Supply CO. over the past 13 months are as follows: Sales in P1,000 Month Sales in P1,000 Month 11 January 14 August 14 February 17 September 15 March 12 October 10 April 14 November 15 May 16 December 17 June 11 January 11 July Required suing a moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February?
B: Find forecasting error from the following table by using Tracking Signal. Period Actual Demand Forecasted Demand 1 8 10 2 10 10 3 7 10 4 13 10 5 9 10 6 12 10
Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error alpha 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Mean Bias MAD (mean error) Problem 6: Maverick Jeans' demand manager decided to evaluate exponential smoothing. To maintain com- parability, she used the data from problem 6, copied below. 1 Month 2 3 Demand 20 18 21 25 4 5 24 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 Develop forecasts for months 5-12. Calculate the Bias and MAD. Use a starting forecast of 20 for month 4 and an alpha value of 0.2. (Note: Adjust all cell values to two decimal points.)
The Northville Post Office experiences a seasonal pattern of daily mail volume every week. The followingdata for two representative weeks are expressed in thousands of pieces of mail:Day Week 1 Week 2Sunday 5 8Monday 20 15Tuesday 30 32Wednesday 35 30Thursday 49 45Friday 70 70Saturday 15 10Total 224 210 a. Calculate a seasonal factor for each day of the week.b. If the postmaster estimates 230,000 pieces of mail to be sorted next week, forecast the volume foreach day of the week.
11. Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald's restaurant: Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand Monday 88.00 88.00 Tuesday 72.00 88.00 Wednesday 68.00 84.00 Thursday 48.00 80.00 Friday − ? Part 2 The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, the forecast for Big Mac demand for Friday is __________ Big Macs (round your response to one decimal place).
Find forecasting error from the following table by using Tracking Signal. Period Actual Demand Forecasted Demand 1 8 10 2 10 10 3 7 10 4 13 10 5 9 10 6 12 10
2G MTN Zambia ll 78% 3:30 PM < OperationsManagement_HW1.. 4.12 Consider the following actual and forecast demand lev- els for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald's restaurant: Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 88 88 72 88 68 84 48 80 The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using exponen- tial smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this expo- nential smoothing method, what is the forecast for Big Mac demand for Friday? Px Download- (1.009 9KB) Comments (0) Send More
Consider the table below which represents the number of active credit card accounts issued by a small credit union in a particular customer segment from 1994 to 2017 and a relevant forecast method. Time Credit cards A B abs sq abs% err 1994 13260 13260 60 1995 13310 13319 60 10 10 97 0.0007 1996 13383 13379 60 13379 4 4 20 0.0003 1997 13427 13438 59 13439 12 12 149 0.0009 1998 13455 13493 58 13497 42 42 1743 0.0031 1999 13520 13548 57 13551 31 31 962 0.0023 2000 13663 13611 59 13605 -58 58 3360 0.0042 2001 13717 13675 60 13670 47 47 2220 0.0034 2002 13753 13737 61 13735 -17 17 296 0.0013 2003 13792 13798 61 13798 6 6 37 0.0004 2004 13858 13858 61 13858 1 1 0.0000 2005 13915 13919 61 13919 4 4 13 0.0003 2006 13966 13978 60 13979 13 13 177 0.0010 2007 14017 14036 60 14038 21 21 450 0.0015 2008 13945 14081 55 14096 151 151 22852 0.0108 2009 14008 14123 51 14136 128 128 16382 0.0091 2010 14076 14164 48 14174 98 98 9658 0.0070 2011 14122 14204 46 14213 90 90 8128 0.0064 2012 14164 14241 43…
Answer using irac method Question 3 The Unemployment Program of the Government of Guava Land has several offices throughout the country, ten (10) to be specific. At these offices, all the administrative matters of the Program are administered, inclusive of payments to suppliers, payroll and Information Technology services. There are several assets and confidential data on each compound such as computer equipment, filing cabinets, personal data and several pieces of furniture. Within recent times, there were numerous burglaries’ at a number of locations, which resulted in the loss of two million dollars’ worth in items. The Police are currently undertaking an investigation to catch the culprits. The Minister, who is responsible for the Program, has mandated the Program to procure security services for one year at each location. After a highly competitive procurement process, Big Trouble Security Services secured the contract to provide security services at all the locations.…
10 171 a) Calculate the three-period moving-average forecast for periods 7 through 10. Three-period Period Actual moving average 1 64 84 91 4 97 115 6. 135 7 137 8. 144 6. 153 10 171 b) Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 7 through 10 using weights of 0.6, 0.3, ar 0.1. 02:40 A a ENG

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