Assume the following AR(1) Y, = 0.036 + 0.69Y,-1 + E Suppose you have data for t-1, let's say Y,I = 3.4 %D a. Estimate the forecasts for Y,t -1, Y+1]t -1, Y+2|t - 1 b. if actual Y, = -0.032, Y+1 = 0.961, Y42 = 0.203. Find MSE?
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- Suppose the process for y, is given by: Yt = 0.1 +0.4ut-1 +0.2ut-2 - 0.1ut-3 + ut Given that you observe ut-1 = 0.3, ut-2 = -0.6 and ut-3 = -0.3, the optimal forecast for yt+2 is: Select one: O a. None of these b. - 0.1 c. 0.07 d. 0.4 e. 0.0Here are the errors associated with a particular forecast over the past five months, in chronological order: 5, 10,-10, 0, 10. Which of the following statements is (are) true? 10. L The mean error over these five months is 3. 11. The forecast was too high during the third month. III. The forecast was perfectly accurate during one of the months. a) I only b) Il only c) Ill only d) I and III e) I, II and IIIQ6 Suppose that at time t=0, half of a "logistic" population of 100000 persons have heard a certain rumor and that the number of those who have heard it is then increasing at the rate of 500 persons per day. How long will it take for this rumor to spread to 80% of the population? ( Suggestion: Find the value of k by substituting P(0) and P'(0) in the logistic equation) a. About 98 days b. About 34 days c. About 19 days d. About 69 days e. About 119 days
- Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast the number of employees who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently Period Employee Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 week ago 65 last week 50a. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 10 would be b. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, for the exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .20, compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) via Excel and/or POM-QM. c. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with α = .20and β = .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 4 would be d.Direction: Complete the table below to find the 60h percentile for the following se of data. Data Find the position of Find P60 P=(n+ 1)th Px100 1. 20, 22, 25, 32, 35 P60 = 20-2 20122 2. 49, 50, 55, 55, 60, 67 P60 = 3. 18, 19, 20, 22, 25,27, 29, 30, 32 P60 = Direction: Read the questions carefully. Encircle the letter of the corre
- Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15 Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8? Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8? Which method appears to provide the better forecast?4. Suppose we have a summary of forecasting techniques calculation results for Gundam Auto Sales Inc. (in the prior item) as follows: Mean Next Standard Period Error Forecasting Method Used Forecast (MSE) 1.3-period UnWMA 10.42 3.24 2.4-period UnWMA 10.38 3.51 3.3-period WMA 10.83 3.03 4. Simple Exponential Smoothing 5. Trend Projection 8.24 5.04 11.43 1.16 a. Which among the techniques is the most reliable? b. What does the result of the most reliable technique say?6-5 Given: Consider the following time series data. week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 16 15.6667 4 11 13.3333 5 17 14.6667 6 14 14 MSE = 11.889 Forecast for week 7 = 14 Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time SeriesValue Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 16 4 11 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
- .A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months Actual 140 Forecast 154 140 112 140 84 126 112 84 112 ?What is the mean absolute deviation 14-O 16.8 2.8- 116.2The following table shows the total sales, in thousands, since a new game was brought to market. Month 0 2 4 9 8 10 12 14 Sales 0 2.2 5.4 9.5 19.1 27.2 32.9 35.4 (a) Plot this data and determine the point of diminishing returns. Enter the closest value in the table. The point of diminishing returns occurs i months after the game is introduced. (b) Predict total possible sales of this game, using the point of diminishing returns from the table. Total sales≈ iTime Actual (Y) Forecast (Yhat) Forecast Error 100 1 2 110 3 115 4 120 If naïve method is used for the above data, what is the error for period 4, e(4)? Hint: You have to calculate he forecasted value before you can calculate the forecast error. 10 15 can not be determined