A police station had to deploy a police officer for an emergency multiple times in the last four evenings. The table below shows the number of emergencies each evening. Weekday Number of calls each day Monday 6. Tuesday Wednesday 12 Thursday 12 What would be their forecast for Friday using a naïve forecasting approach? Forecast for Friday calls
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- Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast the number of employees who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently Period Employee Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 week ago 65 last week 50 a. What would naive forecasting suggest as the number of employee appointments that can be expected this week? " b. b. What is this week's forecast for employee appointments using a 3-week moving average? What would the same forecast be using a 2-week moving average?"Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast the number of employees who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently Period Employee Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 week ago 65 last week 50 a. What would naive forecasting suggest as the number of employee appointments that can be expected this week? "b.2. Montyboy Pet Shop ships boxed can dogfood anywhere in the country. Using the following information, forecast the shipments for the first four months. Seasonal Relative Month January February March 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 The monthly forecast equation being used is: Yt = 402 + 3t April May June Where: to = January last year Yt = number of shipments Month July August September October November December Seasonal Relative 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 Question: Determine the trend amounts for the first four months of the next year assuming January, t=24; February, t=25; etc. Note: Round answers to whole numbers.
- 4. Relate cycles, seasonality and trends in time series forecasting. What is their relevance in such type of forecasting? 5. Illustrate one example/scenario when judgmental forecast is utilized.How Forecasts is compared with predicted values? why these both terms are different?O Announcements- 2021 Spring x A Question 28 - Exam l- Connec X A ezto.mheducation.com/ext/map/index.html?_con=con&external_browser=0&launchUrl=https%253A%252F%252Fnewconnect.mheducation.com%252F#/activity/questi. * ! Apps G Gmail O YouTube O Maps R Paus Exam II A Saved Help Save & Exit Submit 28 A nation's real GDP was $300 billion in Year 1 and $309 billion in Year 2. Its population was 120 million in Year 1 and 125 million in Year 2. What is its real GDP growth rate in Year 2? 8 00:48:46 Multiple Choice 3 percent 2.1 percent 7 percent 9 percent Mc Graw Hill 80 esc esc F7 F2 F3 @ $ & 2 3 4 5 6 8 Q W E T Y P A S D F K く > C V N M. B
- forecasts? 7. Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating forecasts. 8. What advantages as a forecasting tool does exponential smoc1. How is the judgmental forecasting executed? 2. How is judgmental forecasting relevant in making decisions? 3. Differentiate Weighted Moving Average Forecast from Smoothing Forecast? 4. Relate cycles, seasonality and trends in time series forecasting. What is their relevance in such type of forecasting? 5. Illustrate one example/scenario when judgmental forecast is utilized.Actual sales of TV's for the first six month in 2021 were as follows:January 60 February 80 March 42April 68 May 44 June 72 Use this information and determine in whole numbers: 1 The average actual monthly sales for that period 2 Trends: Reduce this average by 6% per month for the next three months 3 Simple Moving Average (SMA): make a forecast for July using a three months simple movingaverage. 4 Weighted Moving Average (WMA): make forecast for July, using a three months weightedmoving average where the weights are 0.5; 0.3 and 0.2 respectively.
- 53. The annual demand for Prizdol, a prescription drugmanufactured and marketed by the NuFeel Company,is normally distributed with mean 50,000 and standarddeviation 12,000. Assume that demand during each ofthe next 10 years is an independent random numberfrom this distribution. NuFeel needs to determine howlarge a Prizdol plant to build to maximize its expectedprofit over the next 10 years. If the company builds aplant that can produce x units of Prizdol per year, it willcost $16 for each of these x units. NuFeel will produceonly the amount demanded each year, and each unit ofPrizdol produced will sell for $3.70. Each unit of Prizdol produced incurs a variable production cost of $0.20.It costs $0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity.a. Among the capacity levels of 30,000, 35,000,40,000, 45,000, 50,000, 55,000, and 60,000 unitsper year, which level maximizes expected profit?Use simulation to answer this question.b. Using the capacity from your answer to part a,NuFeel can be 95%…Explain the relationship that economic variables can have with businesscycles. These have both direction and timing. Give an example economicvariable of each combination of direction timing. Of these two attributes, ifyou had exclusive access to a reliable variable, which relationships wouldyou want this variable to have for forecasting purposesQues 8and 9 please