Question 4 Consider the following data: Month Bicycles Sold 21.6 2. 22.9 25.5 21.9 23.9 6. 27.5 7 31.5 8 29.7 9 28.6 10 31.4 If the forecasting equation used was "1.1t + 20.4" what would the MAPE for this forecasting equation be? 4. Answer
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- Define Forecasts and forecast errors in time series anaylsis?A company that produces video equipment, including videocameras and televisions, is attempting to forecast what newproducts and product innovations might be technologicallyfeasible and that customers might demand 10 years into thefuture. Speculate on what type of qualitative methods itmight use to develop this type of forecast.The demand of a product of a company is given below for the periods. Can we use Winter method for forecasting demands of the A following 3 periods? Why? If yes, apply it past 4. 6. Demand 27 31 40 31 35 45
- 2. Montyboy Pet Shop ships boxed can dogfood anywhere in the country. Using the following information, forecast the shipments for the first four months. Seasonal Relative Month January February March 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 The monthly forecast equation being used is: Yt = 402 + 3t April May June Where: to = January last year Yt = number of shipments Month July August September October November December Seasonal Relative 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 Question: Determine the trend amounts for the first four months of the next year assuming January, t=24; February, t=25; etc. Note: Round answers to whole numbers.Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast the number of employees who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently Period Employee Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 week ago 65 last week 50Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 Develop forecasts from June through October using these techniques: Holt's method with alpha=0.2 and beta=0.1. For Holt's model, the level and trend for May are assumed to be 44 and 12. Judge which forecast method is the best based on MAD.
- Use simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 to forecast bike sales for September through December. Assume that the forecast for September was 60 units. a) What will be the forecast for December? b) Calculate the MAD. Last saved 11:13:58 AM budy Questions Filter (25) Month September October November December F3 X C O Search P Bike Sales 54 72 60 ? YOA linear regression model is Units 3,414-0.839xWeek. For week 45, what is the forecast for the number of units? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. OO unitsCampus Advising needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so she needs te forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The advisor has gathered th following time series data recently: Period Student Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 weeks ago 65 Last week 50 Answer the next two questions (questions 11 and 12), based on this information. 11. What is this week's forecast for student appointments using a three-week moving average? a) 80 b) 50 c) 52 d) 65 e) 78
- 4. Suppose we have a summary of forecasting techniques calculation results for Gundam Auto Sales Inc. (in the prior item) as follows: Mean Next Standard Period Error Forecasting Method Used Forecast (MSE) 1.3-period UnWMA 10.42 3.24 2.4-period UnWMA 10.38 3.51 3.3-period WMA 10.83 3.03 4. Simple Exponential Smoothing 5. Trend Projection 8.24 5.04 11.43 1.16 a. Which among the techniques is the most reliable? b. What does the result of the most reliable technique say?Actual sales of TV's for the first six month in 2021 were as follows:January 60 February 80 March 42April 68 May 44 June 72 Use this information and determine in whole numbers: 1 The average actual monthly sales for that period 2 Trends: Reduce this average by 6% per month for the next three months 3 Simple Moving Average (SMA): make a forecast for July using a three months simple movingaverage. 4 Weighted Moving Average (WMA): make forecast for July, using a three months weightedmoving average where the weights are 0.5; 0.3 and 0.2 respectively.(Ch7) If the mean time between in-flight aircraft engine shutdowns is 12,500 operating hours, what is the 90 percentile on the distribution of the number of hours until the next shutdown? (hint: convert the mean time between events to the mean events per hour λ, then apply inverse exponential) Question 7Select one: a. 20,180 hours b. 18,724 hours c. 23,733 hours d. 28,782 hours