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- Define Forecasts and forecast errors in time series anaylsis?The demand of a product of a company is given below for the periods. Can we use Winter method for forecasting demands of the A following 3 periods? Why? If yes, apply it past 4. 6. Demand 27 31 40 31 35 45Paw Patrol Inc. manufactures toys for kids from 1 to 10 years old. The summary of toy sales by month in 2017 and 2018 is as follows: Dt April May 2018 18600 Period Demand 18716 June 19235 2017 September 19400 July August 19500 October 18300 19753 November 17200 September 18320 December 14998 October 17652 2018 January February March 19800 November 16200 19555 December 15563 19800 What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), when using the weighted 4-period moving average technique? Use weights of 0.6, 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 for the most recent period, the second most recent period, the third most recent period, and the fourth most recent period, respectively. O 5445 O 1256 O 1555 O 4450 O 1140
- 2. Montyboy Pet Shop ships boxed can dogfood anywhere in the country. Using the following information, forecast the shipments for the first four months. Seasonal Relative Month January February March 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 The monthly forecast equation being used is: Yt = 402 + 3t April May June Where: to = January last year Yt = number of shipments Month July August September October November December Seasonal Relative 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 Question: Determine the trend amounts for the first four months of the next year assuming January, t=24; February, t=25; etc. Note: Round answers to whole numbers..A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months Actual 140 Forecast 154 140 112 140 84 126 112 84 112 ?What is the mean absolute deviation 14-O 16.8 2.8- 116.2(Ch7) If the mean time between in-flight aircraft engine shutdowns is 12,500 operating hours, what is the 90 percentile on the distribution of the number of hours until the next shutdown? (hint: convert the mean time between events to the mean events per hour λ, then apply inverse exponential) Question 7Select one: a. 20,180 hours b. 18,724 hours c. 23,733 hours d. 28,782 hours
- Actual sales of TV's for the first six month in 2021 were as follows:January 60 February 80 March 42April 68 May 44 June 72 Use this information and determine in whole numbers: 1 The average actual monthly sales for that period 2 Trends: Reduce this average by 6% per month for the next three months 3 Simple Moving Average (SMA): make a forecast for July using a three months simple movingaverage. 4 Weighted Moving Average (WMA): make forecast for July, using a three months weightedmoving average where the weights are 0.5; 0.3 and 0.2 respectively.Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast the number of employees who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently Period Employee Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 week ago 65 last week 50Fiting a straight ine to a set of data yields the following predicion line. Complete (a) through (e) below a. Interpret the meaning of the Yintercept, Choose the correct anower below O A. The Yintercept, be =4, imples that the average value of Yis 4. OB. The Yintercept, b7, implies that when the value of Xs0, the mean value of Yis 7 OC. The Yantercept, by4, implies that tor each increase of 1 unt in X, the value ofYa expected to increase by 4 unts •D. The Yintercept, 4, implies that when the value of Xis 0, the mean value of Y is 4 b. Interpret the meaning of the slope, b Choose the comect answer below OA The slope, by4, implies that for each increase of 1 unit in X, the value of Yis expected to increase by 4 units OB. The slope, by =7, implies that the average value of Y is 7. O C. The slope, b,=7, imples that for each increase of 1 unit in X, the value of Y is expected to increase by 7 units %3D OD. The slope, b,7, implies that for each increase of 1 unit in X, the value of Yis…
- A company that produces video equipment, including videocameras and televisions, is attempting to forecast what newproducts and product innovations might be technologicallyfeasible and that customers might demand 10 years into thefuture. Speculate on what type of qualitative methods itmight use to develop this type of forecast.Sales in a company are $188 million in 2009 and increase $208 million in 2010. Compute the percentage increase in sales using the usual formula Compare this value to the approximation The approximation performs (1) percentage change increases. 100 x (1) O better (2) O deteriorates O worst O improves 100 x 100 x (Sales 2010 - Sales 2009) Sales 2009 100 x [In (Sales2010) -In (Sales2009)] (Sales 2010 - Sales2009) Sales 2009 100 x [In (Sales 2010) -In (Sales2009)] = [ (Express your response as a percentage and round to three places) Now, assume that sales in a company are $188 million in 2009 and increase $264 million in 2010. = (Sales2010 - Sales 2009) Sales 2009 % % % 100 x [In (Sales 2010) -In (Sales 2009)] = [ (Express your response as a percentage and round to three places) % when the change is small. The quality of the approximation (2). as theQUESTION 3 Annual Fund Returns Over the Past 10 Years Year Return (%) 4.5 6.0 1.5 -20 3 4 15 6 7 19 20 0.0 45 3.5 2.5 5.5 4.0 10 Calculate the geometric mean retur over the 10 years. Give your answer in percent, rounded to two decimal places, so in the format X.XX. Hint, the number zero is not used in the correct answer