Chapter 8.4, Problem 27E

A random sample of 985 “likely voters”—those who are judged to be likely to vote in an upcoming election—were polled during a phone-athon conducted by the Republican Party. Of those contacted, 592 indicated that they intended to vote for the Republican running in the election.

1. a According to this study, the estimate for p, the proportion of all “likely voters” who will vote for the Republican candidate, is p = .601. Find a bound for the error of estimation.
2. b If the “likely voters” are representative of those who will actually vote, do you think that the Republican candidate will be elected? Why? How confident are you in your decision?
3. c Can you think of reasons that those polled might not be representative of those who actually vote in the election?