Principles Of Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780135173930
Author: RENDER, Barry, HEIZER, Jay, Munson, Chuck
Publisher: Pearson,
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Chapter 4, Problem 47P
The number of auto accidents in Athens, Ohio, is related to the regional number of registered automobiles in thousands (X1), alcoholic beverage sales in $10,000s (X2), and rainfall in inches (X3). Furthermore, the regression formula has been calculated as:
where
Y = number of automobile accidents
a = 7.5
b1 = 3.5
b2 = 4.5
b3 = 2.5
Calculate the expected number of automobile accidents under conditions a, b, and c:
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The following gives the number of accidents that occurred on Florida State Highway 101 during the last 4 months:
Jan Feb Mar AprMonth 1 2 3 4Number of Accidents 25 40 60 105
Using the least-squares regression method, the trend equation for forecasting is (round your responses to two decimal places):
y = ? + ?x
For the E-Commerce Retail Sales (Million$) data given in the table below, provide estimates from the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2016 to the 3rd Quarter (Q3) of 2017 by using two models:
1) Single Exponential Smoothing with α=0.3
2) Moving Average with k=2.
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Quarter
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Q1
2016
86802
Q2
2016
92004
Q3
2016
93795
Q4
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Q1
2017
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Q2
2017
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Q3
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Compare two models above (Single Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average) based on their accuracies. Which forecasting method appears to be better? Using the model you choose, provide forecast for the 4th Quarter (Q4) of 2017. Assuming that this model is overestimating, find the actual value of the Q4 of 2017 based on MAPE value.
Some residual graphs from the first forecast model (including wider range of E-Commerce Retail Sales data) are given below. What do these graphs tell about the model? Explain each graph.
The following gives the number of accidents that occurred on Florida State Highway 101 during the last 4 months:
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Number of Accidents
30
48
70
90
Part 2
Using the
least-squares regression
LOADING...
method, the trend equation for forecasting is (round your responses to two decimal
places):
y
=
enter your response here
+
enter your response here
x
Y=?+?x
Chapter 4 Solutions
Principles Of Operations Management
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