Principles Of Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780135173930
Author: RENDER, Barry, HEIZER, Jay, Munson, Chuck
Publisher: Pearson,
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 3P
Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a
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Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2
through 12 using exponential smoothing with a = .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the
actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection,
which forecast is better?
Note ❗Attached photo us referring to problem 4.2
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
12
15
11
18
13
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
(a)
Mean absolute error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(b)
Mean squared error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(c)
Mean absolute percentage error
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places.
(d)
What is the forecast for week 7?
The demand (in number of units) for Apple iPad over the past 6 months at BestBuy is
summarized below.
Month
Nov 2019
Dec 2019
Demand
45
48
Jan 2020
50
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
Apr 2020
42
46
51
Consider the following three forecasting methods:
• Two-month weighted moving average, with weights 6 and 2 (more weight assigned
to more recent data)
Exponential smoothing with a = 0.7. Let the initial forecast for Nov 2019 be 46.
• A trend line projection in the form ŷ = a+bx . To simplify computations,
transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers – designate Nov 2019 as x=1,
Dec 2019 as x= 2, etc.
(a ) For each of the above methods, forecast the demand of Apple iPad for May 2020.
(b) Consider only the two-month weighted moving average method, compute the
MAD measure and the MSE measure using the data from Jan 2020.
(c) Use the trend line to forecast the demand of Apple iPad for Dec 2020.
Give your opinion regarding the reliability of the forecast.
Chapter 4 Solutions
Principles Of Operations Management
Ch. 4 - Ethical Dilemma We live in a society obsessed with...Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative forecasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...
Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14DQCh. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - Prob. 16DQCh. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - Prob. 18DQCh. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Prob. 20DQCh. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - Prob. 7PCh. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Prob. 12PCh. 4 - At you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14PCh. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 144. a) Use a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 16PCh. 4 - Prob. 17PCh. 4 - Prob. 18PCh. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Resolve Problem 4.19 with = .1 and =.8. Using...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21PCh. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Prob. 23PCh. 4 - The following gives the number of accidents that...Ch. 4 - In the past, Peter Kelles tire dealership in Baton...Ch. 4 - George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures...Ch. 4 - Attendance at Orlandos newest Disneylike...Ch. 4 - Prob. 28PCh. 4 - The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 30PCh. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.31, forecast...Ch. 4 - Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new...Ch. 4 - Prob. 35PCh. 4 - Prob. 36PCh. 4 - Prob. 37PCh. 4 - Prob. 38PCh. 4 - Prob. 39PCh. 4 - Prob. 40PCh. 4 - Prob. 41PCh. 4 - Prob. 42PCh. 4 - Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument...Ch. 4 - Prob. 44PCh. 4 - Cafe Michigans manager, Gary Stark, suspects that...Ch. 4 - Prob. 46PCh. 4 - The number of auto accidents in Athens, Ohio, is...Ch. 4 - Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock, Pennsylvania, real...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Prob. 50PCh. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.30, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 53PCh. 4 - Dave Fletcher, the general manager of North...Ch. 4 - Prob. 55PCh. 4 - Prob. 56PCh. 4 - Prob. 57PCh. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - Prob. 1.1VCCh. 4 - Prob. 1.2VCCh. 4 - Using Perezs multiple-regression model, what would...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1.4VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.1VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.2VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.3VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.4VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.5VC
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