Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2.7, Problem 27P
a.
Summary Introduction
To calculate:The one step ahead exponential smoothing forecasts for August through December, assuming
Introduction:
b.
Summary Introduction
To calculate:The accuracy of the forecasts obtained in part (a) with the one step ahead six month moving average.
Introduction:Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
c.
Summary Introduction
To determine: The reasons for the results obtained in part (b).
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
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Students have asked these similar questions
Consider the following time series data.
Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
What type of pattern exists in the data?
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
Week
Time SeriesValue
Forecast
1
18
2
13
3
16
4
11
fill in the blank 3
5
17
fill in the blank 4
6
14
fill in the blank 5
MSE: fill in the blank 6The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
Week
Time SeriesValue
Forecast
1
18
2
13
fill in the blank 8
3
16
fill in the blank 9
4
11
fill in the blank 10
5
17
fill in the blank 11
6
14
fill in the blank 12
MSE: fill in the blank 13The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14
Compare the three-week moving average…
The monthly market shares of General Electric Company for 12
consecutive months follow.
A. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the
data?
B. Develop three-month and four-month moving averages for
this time series. Does the three-month or the four-month
moving average provide the better forecasts based on MSE?
Explain your reasoning.
C. Using your results in (B), compute MAD, MAPE, and
Tracking Signal (TS). Which method provides better forecast?
Explain your reasoning. Assume TS limit of ±4.
D. Apply exponential smoothing to the data. Compute MSE,
MAPE, MAD, and TS. Use a = 0.3. How does exponential
smoothing compare with four-month moving average?
Assume TS limit of ±4.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Market
Shares
23.39
23.56
23.02
23.03
23.60
23.37
23.21
23.40
23.31
23.94
23.39
23.50
Sales for the past 6 months at Dalworth Company are given in the following table:
O
Month
July
August
September
October
What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for August through December forecasts produced by using exponential smoothing with a = 0.9?
(Note: Do not round the forecasts, and choose the closest answer.)
Multiple Choice
O
November
December
O
15.28
9.04
8.75
Sales
52
61
53
35
31
28
31.59
Chapter 2 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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