Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2.7, Problem 17P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The one step ahead predictions for July till December 2013 with the use of four month moving average.
Introduction:
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Students have asked these similar questions
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
7
9
6
10
12
7
12
12
9
9
8
Part 2
Using exponential smoothing with
α =
0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of
6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
Part 3
Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).
National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below:
Sales (1000 units)
Forecast
Observation
Month
Yt
Ft
1
February
19
2
March
18
3
April
15
4
May
20
5
June
18
6
July
22
7
August
20
8
September
?
Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods:
The naïve forecast
A three-month moving average
Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19
A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
6
8
4
7
11
7
13
12
10
13
8
This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d.
Part 2
b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
Part 3
c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights
0.10,
0.30, and
0.60, using
0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).
Part 4
d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed…
Chapter 2 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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