You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $4 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You believe you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is. Given that this is ________ (POSITIVE/NEGATIVE), you (SHOULD/ SHOULD NOT) play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is .(Hint: At what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?)

You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $4 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You believe you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is. Given that this is ________ (POSITIVE/NEGATIVE), you (SHOULD/ SHOULD NOT) play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is .(Hint: At what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?)

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter17: Making Decisions With Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 17.5IP

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In the final round of a TV game show, contestantshave a chance to increase their current winnings of$1 million to $2 million. If they are wrong, theirprize is decreased to $500,000. A contestant thinkshis guess will be right 50% of the time. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correctguess that would make playing profitable?
2. Individual Problems 17-2 You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $5 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You believe you have a 10% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is $ , you Given that this is play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?) (Hint: At
1 . Individual Problems 17-2 You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $4 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You believe you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is . Given that this is , you play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is . (Hint: At what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?)
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You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $1 million to $3 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $750,000. You believe you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is [$ blank]. Given that this is positive [blank (positive/negative)], you should [blank (should/should not)] play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is [blank]. (Hint: At what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?)
You like your job, but your boss gives lousy bonuses. You were recently offered a new job with better rewards and your friend wants to know if you intend to take it. You say, "It depends on whether the bonus this year is generous, Let's wait and see. We'll find out next week" The likely outcome of this game is your boss gives you a ousy :bonus and you ept the new job. If you want to stay at your current job and be better rewarded, you could improve your strategy if you: demand an increase in your bonus by a certain amount, but does not tel your boss about the job offer. adopt a dominant strategy to accept the other position and make this known to your boss. O tell the boss about the job offer you are prepared to take if your bonus structure does not increase by a certain amount. Cadopt a dominant strategy to stay at your current position and make this known to your boss.
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Consider the St. Petersburg Paradox problem first discussed by Daniel Bernoulli in 1738. The game consists of tossing a coin. The player gets a payoff of 2^n where n is the number of times the coin is tossed to get the first head. So, if the sequence of tosses yields TTTH, you get a payoff of 2^4 this payoff occurs with probability (1/2^4). Compute the expected value of playing this game. Next, assume that utility U is a function of wealth X given by U = X.5 and that X = $1,000,000. In this part of the question, assume that the game ends if the first head has not occurred after 40 tosses of the coin. In that case, the payoff is 240 and the game is over. What is the expected payout of this game? Finally, what is the most you would pay to play the game if you require that your expected utility after playing the game must be equal to your utility before playing the game? Use the Goal Seek function (found in Data, What-If Analysis) in Excel.
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3. Find the saddle point, if it exists, for the following game. (b) Solve the following game by using the principle of dominance and find the probabilities of strategies for each player and the value of the game. Player B Player A II III IV V 3 4 4 II 2 4 III 4 4 IV 4 4 20 2420 8760