In the final round of a TV game show, contestantshave a chance to increase their current winnings of$1 million to $2 million. If they are wrong, theirprize is decreased to $500,000. A contestant thinkshis guess will be right 50% of the time. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correctguess that would make playing profitable?

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Risk and Uncertainty

Uncertainty refers to a situation when there is one possible outcome of a decision but where the probability of occurrence of each particular outcome is not known or cannot be estimated.