What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6?           2. If we decide to use an alpha of .2 instead of .6, will we be ‘weighting the error from the previous period higher or the Forecast from the previous period higher?  Explain briefly or show using math!   (In this question I am asking if we change the alpha to a lower alpha, what will be the effect – what will we be ‘weighing’ as more important

Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: Year Year Forecast (000) 1 2 4.00 7.00 1 5.00 3 5.00 Registrations (000) a) Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant (a) of 0.40 and a starting forecast of 5.00 for year 1 (round your responses to one decimal place): 2 3 4.6 5.56 4 4.00 4 5.34 11 9 10 7 8 6 5 9.00 9.00 6.00 10.00 13.00 14.00 12.00 5 4.80 6 7 6.48 7.49 8 6.89 9 8.14 10 10.08 11 11.64 12 11.79 b) Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method (with a smoothing constant (a) = 0.40 and a starting forecast of F₁ = 5.00) is response to one decimal place). registrations (round your

Use regression or simple exponential smoothing with the following data. For exponential smoothing, assume the forecast for year 1 was the same as the actual and use an alpha of 0.7. (use excel to show formauls used)  Year Sales 1 290 2 340 3 400 4 410 5 400   1. What is the tracking signal for the forecast?

Pravinbhai

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: Week 6 weeks ago 5 weeks ago 4 weeks ago 3 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week # Students 83 110 95 80 65 50 What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .5 and beta = .1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5? 49.3 78.7 51.3 50.6 65.4

A security company had to deploy guards for emergencies multiple times in the last four evenings. The numbers of emergencies for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were 7, 4, 8, and 11, respectively. What would be the security company's forecast for the number of emergencies on Friday using an exponential smoothing forecasting approach? (Use \alpha= 0.2 and a forecast for Monday of 10 emergencies)

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows Year Mileage 1 3,100 2 4,000 3 3,450 4 3,850 5 3,750 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 3800 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = 108.3 miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint. You will have only 3 years of matched data.) c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.40 and 0.60 (the weight of 0.60 is for the most recent period) = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number)

Mark​ Gershon, owner of a musical instrument​ distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following​ table:                                                                                                            Maroon 5 TV Appearances 3 3 8 5 8 6 Demand for Guitars 2 5 6 4 11 6   This exercise contains only parts​ b, c, and d. ​b) Using the​ least-squares regression​ method, the equation for forecasting is ​(round your responses to four decimal ​places)​:   Y​ =   ​+   ​c) The estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV 11times​ =   sales ​(round your response to two decimal​ places).   ​d) The correlation coefficient ​(r​)for this model​ =   ​(round your response to four decimal​ places). The coefficient of determination ​(r2​) for this model​ =   ​(round your response to…

Since the beginning of the year, the purchase manager at a department store has been recording sales data to be used to compute 4-period moving averages to forecast sales for an upcoming month. Sales data for the months of January through September are reported in the table below. Month January February March April May June July August September Sales 21 20 39 22 29 14 42 28 27 Computed forecast values are not rounded. Compute the four-period moving average forecast for October. value as a whole number by rounding. Specify the Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAD as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MSE as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAPE as a whole number by rounding. CHECK ANSWER

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:   Year Attendance Four Years ago 10,000 Three Years ago 12,000 Two Years ago 18,000 Last Year 20,000   What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?