a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 3800 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number) b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = 108.3 miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data) c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.40 and 0.60 (the weight of 0.60 is for the most recent period)= miles (round your response to the nearest whole number)

Help Saved Mary, Susan, and Sarah are running a beach boutique on the board walk of Ocean City. Their favorite product is a red lifeguard hoody. Mary believes it will sell 318 times next season. Susan forecasts sales of 518, and Sarah forecasts 199. What would be the result of a simple forecast combination? (Round to two decimal places)

4) A small manufacturing firm has recorded a time series of the cost per unit for the firm's leading product over the past eight years. Year Cost/Unit($) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 24.5 28.2 27.5 26.6 30 31 36 a) If you are not given a base value or trend, what would be the forecast for the year 10 made at the end of year 8 (a=0.2, ß=0.4). b) Forecast for the year 9 using 1) 5-month weighted average using 0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.3, with the heaviest weight applied to the recent month 2) Exponential smoothing using a =0.2 and forecast of 21 for year 5 3) If a value was not provided in the question above, what value of a would you choose?

Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product: LAST YEAR THIS YEAR January 315 February 418 March 390 April 430 May 400 [ June 480 July 430 August 320 September 385 October 530 November 592 555 December 300 400 350 460 390 395 355 245 340 Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast for the fourth quarter

The following are monthly actual and forecast demand levels for May through December for units of a product manufactured by the Deborah Bishop Company in Des Moines: Month May June July August September October Actual Demand 105 82 110 112 108 106 130 120 Forecast Demand 100 108 97 98 108 102 105 107 November December For the given forecast, the tracking signal = MADS (round your response to two decimal places).

Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of tourist visits to the area.  The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local information center. Year Number of tourists 1 700 2 248 3 633 4 458 5 1410 6 1588 7 1629 8 1301 9 1455 10 1989 What is the forecasts for Year 11 using the simple moving method? (show in calculations in excel file)

Given the table below, complete the missing cell values applying the Exponential Smoothing method of forecasting and Mean Absolute Deviation. Answer also the other 2 related questions below the table. Numbers with decimal should take 2 decimal places. Actual Quarter Tonnage Unloaded 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 175 160 170 160 160 170 180 200 Forecast for a=3 175 175.0 170.5 167.2 165.1 166.6 170.6 Sum of absolute deviation = Absolute Deviation for a = .3 Other questions: (1) What is the MAD for a = .3? (2) Which smoothing constant would you prefer? 0.00 15.00 0.50 10.35 4.93 13.45 29.41 80.89 Forecast for a = .6 175 166.0 168.4 163.4 161.3 166.5 174.6 Absolute Deviation for a = .6 0.00 15.00 4.00 8.40 3.36 8.66 13.46 25.38

A recently introduced product has a positive trend in sales. The product’s sales have increased in each of its first eight weeks on the market. The forecast for week 6 was 1,325 (F6 = 1,325), with A6 = 1,283 and T6 = 42. Using smoothing components α = 0.20 and β = 0.30, develop forecasts for weeks 7 and 8.

Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: Year Year Forecast (000) 1 2 4.00 7.00 1 5.00 3 5.00 Registrations (000) a) Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant (a) of 0.40 and a starting forecast of 5.00 for year 1 (round your responses to one decimal place): 2 3 4.6 5.56 4 4.00 4 5.34 11 9 10 7 8 6 5 9.00 9.00 6.00 10.00 13.00 14.00 12.00 5 4.80 6 7 6.48 7.49 8 6.89 9 8.14 10 10.08 11 11.64 12 11.79 b) Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method (with a smoothing constant (a) = 0.40 and a starting forecast of F₁ = 5.00) is response to one decimal place). registrations (round your

Use regression or simple exponential smoothing with the following data. For exponential smoothing, assume the forecast for year 1 was the same as the actual and use an alpha of 0.7. (use excel to show formauls used)  Year Sales 1 290 2 340 3 400 4 410 5 400   1. What is the tracking signal for the forecast?