Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Computeeach forecast. Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method 1. Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Computeeach forecast. Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accuratemethod.WeekSales (cases)1172213274315196.17721

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Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. Compute a three- period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Compute each forecast. Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method. Week Sales (cases) 1 17 21 3 27 4 31 19 17 21 +567

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. Compute a three- period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Compute each forecast. Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method. Week Sales (cases) 1 17 21 3 27 4 31 19 17 21 +567

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.6: Moving Averages Models

Problem 22P: The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
1. Solve manually. The following gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks. Pints Used 360 Week August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 389 410 381 368 October 5 374 a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. b. Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.1, 0.3 and 0.6, using 0.6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. c. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and c=0.2. d. Compute the MAD for the 3-week moving average, 3-week weighted moving average and exponential smoothing models above.
Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)
12-1. The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis- St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the de- mand for the Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the following table for the past year. Month January February March April Мay June Motorcycle Sales 7 10 8 7 12 July August September 10 11 12 October 10 November December 14 16 a Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year). b. Compore a five-month moving average forecast for June drough January. c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for January of dhe next year?
Using naïve method to make a forecast involving data with trend, the forecasted sales volume for week 4 must be ________ units if the actual sales are 500, 510, and 508 in weeks 1, 2, & 3, respectively: * o 506 o 508 o 510 o 500
11. Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald's restaurant: Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand Monday 88.00 88.00 Tuesday 72.00 88.00 Wednesday 68.00 84.00 Thursday 48.00 80.00 Friday − ? Part 2 The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, the forecast for Big Mac demand for Friday is __________ Big Macs (round your response to one decimal place).
Week Forecast Actual Demand 52 48 42 46 3 56 52 4 45 47 true or false Assume that the actual demand is representative of a repeating pattern over 4 weeks. The cyclical index for Week 1 is (approximately) 1.07 The forecast of demand for Week 5 (F5) using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) with 3 weeks is 48.75. The forecast of demand for Week 5 (F5) using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3 is 46.4.