4.31 Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table: WEEK 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 CALLS 50 35 25 40 45 35 20 30 35 20 15 40 WEEK 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CALLS 55 35 25 55 55 40 35 60 75 50 40 65 a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25? b) Reforecast each period using a = .6. c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing con- stant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the measure of error you used. Px

4.31 Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table: WEEK 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 CALLS 50 35 25 40 45 35 20 30 35 20 15 40 WEEK 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CALLS 55 35 25 55 55 40 35 60 75 50 40 65 a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25? b) Reforecast each period using a = .6. c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing con- stant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the measure of error you used. Px

Contemporary Marketing

18th Edition

ISBN:9780357033777

Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Publisher:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Chapter14: Pricing Strategies

Section14.2: Forecasting Demand

Problem 1LO

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14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places) 15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places) 16
Give typed answer Question: Use an exponential smoothing model with a =.4 to forecast issues remediated for periods 6-10. (Assume a beginning forecast of 320 for period 5). 1. Forecast Period 6 (August) : ? 2. Forecast Period 7 (September) : ? 3. Forecast Period 8 (October) : ? 4. Forecast Period 9 (November) : ? 5. Forecast Period 10 (December) : ?
There is a bias towards under forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not O There is a severe bias towards under forecasting O Bias is negligible in this case Question 22 A MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) of 17.3 suggests which of the following? O There is an over-forecasting bias of 17.3 O The standard deviation for the forecast data is 17.3 O All forecasts fall within 17.3 of the actual data O On average, the forecasts miss by 17.3 O Without knowing the average, the MAD is useless 0 日

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1. The number of bushels of apples sold at a roadside fruit stand over a 12-day period were as follows: Day Numbar Sold Day Number Sold 25 35 31 8. 32 29 9. 10 38 33 34 37 40 37 32 11 12 If a two-period moving average has been used to forecast sales, what were the daily forecasts starting with the forecast for day 3? If a four-period moving average has been used, what were the forecasts for eacn uay starting with day 5? Plot the original data and each set of forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast has the greater tendency to smooth? Which forecast has the better ability to respond quickly to changes? What does use of the term sales instead of demand imply? a. b. C. 123 4 56
11. Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald's restaurant: Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand Monday 88.00 88.00 Tuesday 72.00 88.00 Wednesday 68.00 84.00 Thursday 48.00 80.00 Friday − ? Part 2 The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, the forecast for Big Mac demand for Friday is __________ Big Macs (round your response to one decimal place).
Using naïve method to make a forecast involving data with trend, the forecasted sales volume for week 4 must be ________ units if the actual sales are 500, 510, and 508 in weeks 1, 2, & 3, respectively: * o 506 o 508 o 510 o 500
1. The number of bushels of apples sold at a roadside fruit stand over a 12-day period were PROBLEMS as follows: Day Numbar Sold Day Number Sold 25 35 31 29 33 32 38 10 40 37 32 34 11 37 12 If a two-period moving average has been used to forecast sales, what were the daily forecasts starting with the forecast for day 3? If a four-period moving average has been used, what were the forecasts for eacn uay starting with day 5? Plot the original data and each set of forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast has the greater tendency to smooth? Which forecast has the better ability to respond quickly to changes? What does use of the term sales instead of demand imply? b. C. 2. If exponential smoothing with a = .4 had been used to forecast daily sales for apples in Problem 1, determine what the daily forecasts would have been. Then, plot the original data, the exponential forecasts, and a set of naive forecasts on the same graph. Based on a visual comparison, is the naive more accurate or…
In the Atlanta area, the number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy copy machines has been recorded as follows: October Calls 1 92 2 127 3 106 4 165 5 125 6 111 7 178 8 97 Prepare a three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4-8. What is the error on each day? Prepare a three-period weighted moving average forecast for periods 4-8 using weights of w1=.5, w2=.3, w3=.2 Which of the two forecasts is better? (Use CFE to calculate the better method)