The Hungry Person restaurant has posted its sales (in thousands of dollars) for the last two years. Month 1st Year 2nd Year January 201 216 February 216 223 March 232 240 April 201 244 May 221 232 June 213 220 July 220 211 August 214 213 September 202 217 October 217 220 November 224 212 December 236 216 a) Construct a time series plot in excel. (Label axes and graph) b) Develop a four month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month. c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month. d) Compare the result for the four month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
The Hungry Person restaurant has posted its sales (in thousands of dollars) for the last two years.
|
Month |
1st Year |
2nd Year |
|
January |
201 |
216 |
|
February |
216 |
223 |
|
March |
232 |
240 |
|
April |
201 |
244 |
|
May |
221 |
232 |
|
June |
213 |
220 |
|
July |
220 |
211 |
|
August |
214 |
213 |
|
September |
202 |
217 |
|
October |
217 |
220 |
|
November |
224 |
212 |
|
December |
236 |
216 |
a) Construct a time series plot in excel. (Label axes and graph)
b) Develop a four month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month.
c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month.
d) Compare the result for the four month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
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