Ricky is completing four tuitions of higher learning as options for a master’s in Business Administration. Each university has strong and weak points and the demand for MBA graduates is uncertain. The availability of jobs, student loans and financial support will have a significant impact on Ricky’s ultimate decision. Vanderbilt and Seattle’s university have comparatively high tuition, which would necessitates Ricky take out student loans resulting in possible substantial student loan debt. In a tight market, degrees with that cachet might spell the difference between a hefty paycheck and a piddling unemployment check. Northeastern state university and Texas Tech University hold the advantage of comparatively low tuition but a more regional appeal in a tight job market. Ricky gathers his advisory council of Evan and O’Neil to assist with the decision. Together they forecast three possible scenarios for the job market and institutional success and predict annual cash flows associated with MBA from each institution. All cash flows in the table are in thousands of dollars. Schools Senario 1 Senario 2 Senario 3 Vanderbilt 95 20 10 Texas Tech 55 60 60 Seattle 90 10 80 Northeastern State 65 50 60     Evan tends to be extremely optimistic. Which decision making criterion would he naturally select and what conclusion would be recommend to Ricky? Why   Oneil is extremely pessimistic. Which decision making criterion would be naturally select and what conclusion would be recommend to Ricky? Why   Ricky doesn’t know what to think, since he has no idea which scenario will happen which criterion is he suited for and what is his decision? Sharon burst into the meeting and announces that there’s another way to consider the issue since Ricky will have to live with his choice for the rest of his life, he might consider selecting the alternative that will cause him the least pain in hindsight when he compares his outcome with what criterion is she talking about, what is the best school for this criterion and why? Ricky’s uncle Patrick believes that the scenario are not necessary equally like3ly and suggest that the like hood of occurrence of scenarios one and three are both 0.3. What two enterio are most appropriate and what is the resulting decision?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 30P
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Decision Analysis

Ricky is completing four tuitions of higher learning as options for a master’s in Business Administration. Each university has strong and weak points and the demand for MBA graduates is uncertain. The availability of jobs, student loans and financial support will have a significant impact on Ricky’s ultimate decision. Vanderbilt and Seattle’s university have comparatively high tuition, which would necessitates Ricky take out student loans resulting in possible substantial student loan debt. In a tight market, degrees with that cachet might spell the difference between a hefty paycheck and a piddling unemployment check. Northeastern state university and Texas Tech University hold the advantage of comparatively low tuition but a more regional appeal in a tight job market. Ricky gathers his advisory council of Evan and O’Neil to assist with the decision. Together they forecast three possible scenarios for the job market and institutional success and predict annual cash flows associated with MBA from each institution. All cash flows in the table are in thousands of dollars.

Schools

Senario 1

Senario 2

Senario 3

Vanderbilt

95

20

10

Texas Tech

55

60

60

Seattle

90

10

80

Northeastern State

65

50

60

 

 

  1. Evan tends to be extremely optimistic. Which decision making criterion would he naturally select and what conclusion would be recommend to Ricky? Why  
  2. Oneil is extremely pessimistic. Which decision making criterion would be naturally select and what conclusion would be recommend to Ricky? Why  
  3. Ricky doesn’t know what to think, since he has no idea which scenario will happen which criterion is he suited for and what is his decision?
  4. Sharon burst into the meeting and announces that there’s another way to consider the issue since Ricky will have to live with his choice for the rest of his life, he might consider selecting the alternative that will cause him the least pain in hindsight when he compares his outcome with what criterion is she talking about, what is the best school for this criterion and why?
  5. Ricky’s uncle Patrick believes that the scenario are not necessary equally like3ly and suggest that the like hood of occurrence of scenarios one and three are both 0.3. What two enterio are most appropriate and what is the resulting decision? 
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