Determine the demand for the year 2021 using the moving averages. b) Comment on the validity of the model based on the 95% confidence level.
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I need the answer in Excel. Please help me.
The following table contains 5-year quarterly sales information for the KYRYH product.
|
Year |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Total |
|
2016 |
43000 |
37800 |
32300 |
40600 |
153700 |
|
2017 |
47000 |
37000 |
31200 |
40000 |
155200 |
|
2018 |
46000 |
39000 |
28000 |
40500 |
153500 |
|
2019 |
49000 |
42300 |
33500 |
44000 |
168800 |
|
2020 |
52700 |
44000 |
33600 |
45700 |
176000 |
a) Determine the demand for the year 2021 using the moving averages.
b) Comment on the validity of the model based on the 95% confidence level.
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- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?In each of the following, name the term defined or answer the question. Answers are listed at the bottom. Assume you are using exponential smoothing with an adjustment for trend. Demand is increasing at a very steady rate of about five units per week. Would you expect your alpha and delta parameters to becloser to one or zero? Your forecast is, on average, incorrect by about 10 percent. The average demand is 130 units. What is MAD? If the tracking signal for your forecast was consistently positive, you could then say this about your forecasting technique. What would you suggest to improve the forecast described in question 10?12. You know that sales are greatly influenced by theamount your firm advertises in the local paper. Whatforecasting technique would you suggest trying?13. What forecasting tool is most appropriate when closelyworking with customers dependent on your products?1. Problem: If a car driven 50,000 miles, how much would be the maintenance cost? 2. Use Linear Regression equation to find the maintenance cost. Show step by step calculations. 3. Also, calculate r^2 for the above model. Show step by step calculations.
- Sales over the past 10 years are shown below. Using the method of least squares, calculate the values of a and b to complete this regression equation. Year Sales 1 1,640 2 1,850 3 1,240 4 1,250 5 1,980 6 1,400 7 1,060 8 1,430 9 1,050 10 1,990 (Indicate a negative answer using a "-" sign. Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to 3 decimal places.) What is your forecast for next year's sales? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to 2 decimal places.)Answer the following questions 1. Calculate the slope for the regression line. (show all working) 2. Calculate the intercept for the regression line. (show all working) 3. Write the equation for the regression line 4. Forecast sales for a store if advertising spending is:-1. $240,000 2. $300,000The table below shows the sales of widgets (in units) over the past 5 years. Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.2, what is the forecast for next year? The initial forecast (for 5 years ago) was 1,200 units. Forecast: Time Sales 5 years ago 1,140 4 years ago 1,220 3 years ago 1,450 2 years ago 1,090 Last year 1,150 (Do not round intermediate calculations, round your final answer to the nearest whole number.)
- You are the marketing director for a minor league baseball team, and (not unlike a certain major league baseball team in this city) you are interested in ways to increase attendance.You think that attendance is likely driven by several factors, including how competitive the team is, the weather, and certain price promotions which are offered periodically throughout the season (e.g., ‘Buck Night’, where all parking, hot dogs and soft drinks are only $1). Based on data from several prior seasons, you estimate the following regression model for attendance: attend= 1000 + 10,000 win% + 1500 sun + 1200 sun*promo where, attend = attendance in number or patronswin% = team’s winning percentage (a measure of how competitive they are)sun = 1 if the weather is sunny, 0 elsepromo = 1 if the game offered a price promotion, 0 else. a) Draw a graph of the relationship between attendance and the team’s winning percentage, for the case when there is a price promotion on a sunny night. Also, graph…Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 455 2 510 3 518 4 570 5 590 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are 627.6627.6 sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is nothing sales (round your response to one decimal place).d. Now based on regression analysis predict the number of patients that Dr. Fok will see in year 11 and 12 based on the forecasted Robbery Rate - year 11 is 117.1 and year 12 is 120.8. e. What is the MAD? f. What is the correlation Coefficient – r-value? % g. Based on the overall analysis, how well does each model fit the data?
- The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to profit and loss statements. What type of forecasting information do you think would the investors be looking for? Why?Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein “hamburger” restaurants in northern Chicago area. Sales figures and profits for the stores are in the table below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; profits are in hundreds of thousands of dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $24 million? 30 million?