Complete the forecasting worksheets for: Naïve  Average Moving Average Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 with .8 being the most current, then .15, then .05 ExponA using and alpha level of .75 ExponB will automatically be .25 when A is .75 Exponential Solver What is the best alpha level as determined by the Exponential Solver? Which is the best forecasting option for MAE? What is the MAE? Which is the best forecasting option for MAPE? What is the MAPE?   Period Sales 1 115 2 118 3 128 4 122 5 135 6 128 7 135 8 132 9 132 10 135

Month Demand Forecast Error 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Mean Abs Error Problem 6: The demand manager of Maverick Jeans is responsible for ensuring sufficient warehouse space for the finished jeans that come from the production plants. It has occasionally been necessary to rent public warehouse space, something that Maverick would like to avoid. In order to estimate the space requirements the demand manager is evaluating moving-average forecasts. The demand (in 1,000 case units) for the last fiscal year is shown below. Bias MAD (mean error) Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Demand 20 18 21 25 24 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 Use a three-month moving average to estimate the month-in- advance forecast of demand for months 4-12. Calculate the Bias and MAD. (Note: Adjust all cell values to two decimal points.)

Demand for oil changes at Garcia's Garage has been as follows: Month January February March April May June July August Number of Oil Changes 38 55 56 60 58 01 70 52 a. Use simple linear regression analysis to develop a forecasting model for monthly demand. In this application, the dependent variable, Y, is monthly demand and the independent variable, X, is the month. For January, let X=1; for February, let X 2; and so on. The forecasting model is given by the equation Y=X (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places)

14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below:   Day                  Bicycle Victims 1                                  8 2                                  14 3                                  8 4                                  14 5                                  18 6                                  15   With an alpha value of 0.31  and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4?  (Round  to two decimal places)  15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5?     (Round  to two decimal places)

The following data are for calculator sales in units at an electronics store over the past nine weeks: Week Sales Week Sales 45 6 53 50 7 59 44 8 59 51 64 57 Use trend projection with regression to forecast sales for weeks 10 - 13. What are the error measures (CFE, MSE, G. MAD, and MAPE) for this forecasting procedure? How about ?? Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast for weeks 10 - 13. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) Period Forecast, F 10 64.81 11 67.06 12 69.31 13 71.56 Obtain the error measures. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) CFE MSE MAD MAPE 6.72 2.75 2.1 4.1 % Find the coefficient of determination (). The coefficient of determination ? = (Enter your response rounded to two decimal places.)

I The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October 5 Pints Used 345 389 412 383 366 371 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = 373.33 pints (round your response to two decimal places). b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.10, 0.35, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.) the largest weight applies to most

A security company had to deploy guards for emergencies multiple times in the last four evenings. The numbers of emergencies for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were 7, 4, 8, and 11, respectively. What would be the security company's forecast for the number of emergencies on Friday using an exponential smoothing forecasting approach? (Use \alpha= 0.2 and a forecast for Monday of 10 emergencies)

The following data are for calculator sales in units at an electronics store over the past nine weeks: Week Sales Week Sales 1 45 6. 53 2 50 7 59 3 44 59 4 51 9 64 5 57 Use trend projection with regression to forecast sales for weeks 10 - 13. What are the error measures (CFE, MSE, G. MAD, and MAPE) for this forecasting procedure? How about ? Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast for weeks 10 - 13. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) Period Forecast, F, 10 11 12 13

Mark​ Gershon, owner of a musical instrument​ distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following​ table:                                                                                                            Maroon 5 TV Appearances 3 3 8 5 8 6 Demand for Guitars 2 5 6 4 11 6   This exercise contains only parts​ b, c, and d. ​b) Using the​ least-squares regression​ method, the equation for forecasting is ​(round your responses to four decimal ​places)​:   Y​ =   ​+   ​c) The estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV 11times​ =   sales ​(round your response to two decimal​ places).   ​d) The correlation coefficient ​(r​)for this model​ =   ​(round your response to four decimal​ places). The coefficient of determination ​(r2​) for this model​ =   ​(round your response to…

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:   Year Attendance Four Years ago 10,000 Three Years ago 12,000 Two Years ago 18,000 Last Year 20,000   What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?