Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of tourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local information center. Year Number of tourists 1 700 2 248 3 633 4 458 5 1410 6 1588 7 1629 8 1301 9 1455 10 1989

Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of tourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local information center. Year Number of tourists 1 700 2 248 3 633 4 458 5 1410 6 1588 7 1629 8 1301 9 1455 10 1989

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter14: Data Mining

Section14.2: Classification Methods

Problem 3P

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
Phillip Cane, the managing editor of Your Life Magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for monthly newsstand sales in order to schedule press runs. Sales in thousands of copies for the last eight months of 2020 (the first year of publication) were: Month (2020) Sales May 50 June 45 July 60 August 52 September 69 October 60 November 47 December 53 Phillip does not believe there is a seasonal pattern. Make the forecast using the following techniques for the first six months of 2021: Exponential smoothing with α = 0.4 Ordinary least squares technique or linear regression analysis Make graphical presentations of your answers and determine which…
The president of the Southern University wants to forecast student enrolments for this academic year based on the following historical data: (5 years ago enrolment was 10508 ), (4 years ago enrolment was 12646), (3 years ago enrolment was 13018 ), (2 years ago enrolment was 16012 ) and in the last year enrolment was 19323 . What is the forecast for this year using three periods simple moving average? a. 12057.333 b. 14301.4 c. 13892 d. 16117.667
Quantitative forecasting should be preferred over qualitative forecasting since they involve computations and are, therefore, more accurate. True False
Phillip Cane, the managing editor of Your Life Magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for monthly newsstand sales in order to schedule press runs. Sales in thousands of copies for the last eight months of 2020 (the first year of publication) were: Month (2020) Sales May 50 June 45 July 60 August 52 September 69 October 60 November 47 December 53 Phillip does not believe there is a seasonal pattern. Make the forecast using the following techniques for the first six months of 2021: Ordinary least squares technique or linear regression analysis
Phillip Cane, the managing editor of Your Life Magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for monthly newsstand sales in order to schedule press runs. Sales in thousands of copies for the last eight months of 2020 (the first year of publication) were: Month (2020) Sales May 50 June 45 July 60 August 52 September 69 October 60 November 47 December 53 Make the forecast using the following techniques for the first six months of 2021: 3-month moving average 3-month weighted moving average (weights are 3,2,1 : the highest for the most recent past month data)
Tom’s Towing LLC operates a fleet of tow trucks that it sends to help drivers in need onthe nearby highway. The numbers of calls requesting a tow truck for Monday, Tuesday,Wednesday, and Thursday were 27, 18, 21, and 15, respectively. What would be its forecast for Friday using an exponential smoothing forecasting approach? Use α = 0.4 and aforecast for Monday of 18.
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: 3 8 9 6 7 6 3 7 10 11 Year Year Forecast (000) 1 5 1 5 2 5 4 4 4 5 11 Registrations (000) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.4 to forecast the registrations at the seminar for years 2 through 12. To begin the procedure, assume that the forecast for year 1 was 5,000 people signing up (round your responses to one decimal place): 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 16 9 11 12 10 D 11 12 a) What is the MAD? Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method (with a smoothing constant (x) = 0.4 and a starting forecast of F₁ = 5) is thousand registrations (round your response to one decimal place). b) What is the MSE? The mean squared error based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method (with a smoothing constant (x) = 0.4 and a starting forecast of F₁ = 5) is (round your response to two decimal…