Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach
5th Edition
ISBN: 9781337106665
Author: Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 17, Problem 4MC
To determine
The expected
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Your software development company is considering investing in a new mobile app. If it goes viral (10% probability), you expect an NPV of $1,000,000; if it is moderately successful (20% probability), you expect an NPV of $200,000; and if it fails (70% probability), you expect an NPV of $-200,000. What is the expected NPV of the product?
Suppose that you graduate from college next year and you have two career options: 1) You will start a job in an investment bank paying a $100,000 annual salary. 2) You will start a Ph.D. in economics and, as a student, you will receive a $20,000 salary. You are bad with decisions, so you are letting a friend of yours decide for you by flipping a coin. The probabilities of options 1 and 2 are, therefore, each 50%. a) Illustrate, using indifference curves, your preferences regarding consumption choices in the two different states of the world. Assume that you are risk-averse. [Include also the 45 degrees line in your figure] b) Now show how the indifference curves would change if you were substantially more risk averse than before. Explain. c) Now show the indifference curves if you are risk neutral and if you are risk loving. d) Show your expected utility preferences from point a) mathematically.
A drug company is considering investing $100 million today to bring a weight loss pill to the market. At the end of one
year, the firm will know the payoff; there is a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a high price and generate $37 million
per year of profit forever and a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a low price and generate $1 million per year of profit
forever. The interest rate is 10%. Suppose the firm decides to wait one year to determine whether the pill will sell at a high
or low price. The firm will not invest if it learns that the pill will sell at a low price. What is the net present value of waiting
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$122.72 million
$64.5 million
$201.22 million
$88 million
Chapter 17 Solutions
Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach
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- A drug company is considering investing $100 million today to bring a weight loss pill to the market. At the end of one year, the firm will know the payoff; there is a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a high price and generate $37 million per year of profit forever and a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a low price and generate $I million per year of profit forever. The interest rate is 10%. Suppose the firm decides to wait one year to determine whether the pill will sell at a high or low price. The firm will not invest if it learns that the pill will sell at a low price. What is the net present value of waiting one year to make the investment?O $88 millionO$122.72 millionO $201.22 millionO $64.5 millionarrow_forwardSuppose that you have two opportunities to invest $1M. The first will increase the amount invested by 50% with a probability of 0.6 or decrease it with a probability of 0.4. The second will increase it by 5% for certain. You wish to split the $1M between the two opportunities. Let x be the amount invested in the first opportunity with (1-x) invested in the second. Find the optimal value of x. Using expected value as the criterion (linear utility) Using the flowing utility function: u(x)=2.3 ln〖(1+4.5x)arrow_forwardAsaparrow_forward
- Suppose you have a house worth $200,000 (wealth). Your utility of wealth is given by U(w) = ln(w). There is a small chance that a fire will damage your house causing a loss of $75,000. You estimate there is a 2% chance of fire. a) What is your expected wealth? b) What is your expected utility from owning the house? c) Suppose you can add a fire detection/prevention system to your house. This would reduce the chance of a bad event to 0 but it would cost you $C to install. What is the most you are willing to pay for the security system? (Here is an identity you will find usefularrow_forwardYou take a position with a large real estate development company as your first job after graduation. Your first big assignment is to sell an office building – you have been informed the company’s cost into the building (and the bottom line price it is willing to accept) is $400,000. You have identified a likely buyer and you assess that his top price is either $500,000 with a probability of .3, $600,000 with a probability of .5, or $1,000,000 with a probability of .2. You have to commit to a posted price – what price will maximize your profitability?arrow_forwardcould you answer part b to this question or if you have time part a and part b but part is more important. thank you Priyanka has an income of £90,000 and is a von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility maximiser with von Neumann-Morgenstern utility index . There is a 1 % probability that there is flooding damage at her house. The repair of the damage would cost £80,000 which would reduce the income to £10,000. a) Would Priyanka be willing to spend £500 to purchase an insurance policy that would fully insure her against this loss? Explain. b) What would be the highest price (premium) that she would be willing to pay for an insurance policy that fully insures her against the flooding damage?arrow_forward
- Answer all questions. Imagine you are a person with a chronic disease. If the disease flares up, you will have to take substantial leave from work. The probability of the flare-up is 0.2 (or 20%). If you do not need to take leave from work, your income is $6400. If you take leave from work, your income is $1600. What is the expected value of your income? Expected utility E [= (U(1)] = pU (IS) + (1-p) U (IH) 1600 x 0.2 + 0.8 x 6400 = 5540 Assume that your utility function . What is the expected utility of your income? 0.8 √ 6400 + 0.2 √1600 = 72 utils Suppose a company is offering insurance where your premium is $500 and your payout is $2000. What is your expected utility from taking on this insurance? (Hint: you need to calculate your adjusted earnings in both states)arrow_forwardPriyanka has an income of £90,000 and is a von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility maximiser with von Neumann-Morgenstern utility index u(x) = square root x . There is a 1 % probability that there is flooding damage at her house. The repair of the damage would cost £80,000 which would reduce the income to £10,000. a) Would Priyanka be willing to spend £500 to purchase an insurance policy that would fully insure her against this loss? Explainarrow_forwardPriyanka has an income of £90,000 and is a von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility maximiser with von Neumann-Morgenstern utility index u(x) = √√x. There is a 1 % probability that there is flooding damage at her house. The repair of the damage would cost £80,000 which would reduce the income to £10,000. a) Would Priyanka be willing to spend £500 to purchase an insurance policy that would fully insure her against this loss? Explain. b) What would be the highest price (premium) that she would be willing to pay for an insurance policy that fully insures her against the flooding damage?arrow_forward
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