Operations Management
17th Edition
ISBN: 9781259142208
Author: CACHON, Gérard, Terwiesch, Christian
Publisher: Mcgraw-hill Education,
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Chapter 15, Problem 7PA
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To calculate: The result of a simple
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Suppose you are working for a baking company in Bangladesh. What are the relevant factors you will consider for forecasting? What technique would you apply? How would you reduce forecast error in this case?The company must have to be any Bangladeshi banking company
Based on the following equation for a moving average forecast, what would have been the three week moving average forecast for week 53 for Small Town Restaurant (see downloaded file for actual demand)? Provide two decimal places and use normal rounding.
What happens if we increase the time periods in our moving average forecast to six weeks opposed to three?
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It would be more accurate because it includes more data.
There would be no change.
It would be less sensitive to changes.
It would be better at predicting a trend.
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Mary, Susan, and Sarah are running a beach boutique on the board walk of Ocean City. Their favorite product is a red lifeguard hoody.
Mary believes it will sell 318 times next season. Susan forecasts sales of 518, and Sarah forecasts 199.
What would be the result of a simple forecast combination? (Round
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Chapter 15 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 15 - When creating a time seriesbased forecast for the...Ch. 15 - Prob. 2CQCh. 15 - Prob. 3CQCh. 15 - Prob. 4CQCh. 15 - Prob. 5CQCh. 15 - Prob. 6CQCh. 15 - Prob. 7CQCh. 15 - Prob. 8CQCh. 15 - Using the moving average forecast, is it possible...Ch. 15 - Prob. 10CQ
Ch. 15 - Prob. 11CQCh. 15 - Prob. 12CQCh. 15 - Prob. 13CQCh. 15 - Deseasonalizing old demand data is the process of...Ch. 15 - Prob. 15CQCh. 15 - Prob. 1PACh. 15 - Prob. 2PACh. 15 - Prob. 3PACh. 15 - A police station had to deploy police officers for...Ch. 15 - MyApp is a small but growing startup that sees...Ch. 15 - Prob. 6PACh. 15 - Prob. 7PACh. 15 - Prob. 1CCh. 15 - CASE INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS The U.S. Department of...Ch. 15 - Prob. 3C
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardThe file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.arrow_forwardThe Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?arrow_forward
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?arrow_forwardThe owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?arrow_forwardScenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?arrow_forward
- The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?arrow_forwardScenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?arrow_forwardThe file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?arrow_forward
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?arrow_forwardThe file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?arrow_forwardThe past two years sales at ACSR Inc. were 3 million and 5 million. Their forecast team used a two-period moving average to forecast its sales this year. But the actual sales for this year were 5 million. Now, the forecast team wants to forecast its sales for next year by using exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.6. What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6? 2. If we decide to use an alpha of .2 instead of .6, will we be ‘weighting the error from the previous period higher or the Forecast from the previous period higher? Explain briefly or show using math! (In this question I am asking if we change the alpha to a lower alpha, what will be the effect – what will we be ‘weighing’ as more important?)arrow_forward
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