Chapter 14, Problem 5E

To determine

To explain meaning of phrase.

Explanation of Solution

Given:

"What I think is our best determination is it will be a colder than normal winter," said Pamela Naber Knox, a Wisconsin state climatologist. "I'm basing that on a couple of different things. First, in looking at the past few winters, there has been a lack of really cold weather. Even though we are not supposed to use the law of averages, we are due."

We need to extract all the information in detail. Although acknowledging that there is no law of averages, Knox attempts to usethe law of averages to predict the severity of the winter. Some winters are harshand some are mild over the long run, and knowledge of this can help us todevelop a long-term probability of having a harsh winter. However, probabilitydoes not compensate for odd occurrences in the short term. We will take an example to understand this scenario. Suppose that theprobability of having a harsh winter is 25%. Even if there are several mildwinters in a row then also the probability of having a harsh winter is still 25%.