Contemporary Engineering Economics (6th Edition)
6th Edition
ISBN: 9780134105598
Author: Chan S. Park
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 12, Problem 17P
(a):
To determine
Calculate the mean and variance.
(b):
To determine
Calculate the probability.
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A large company in the communication and publishing industry has quantified the relationshipbetween the price of one of its products and the demand for this product as Price = 150 − 0.01× Demand for an annual printing of this particular product. The fixed costs per year (i.e., perprinting) = RM50,000 and the variable cost per unit= RM40.
a) Analyze what is the maximum profit that can be achieved if the maximum expected demand is 6,000 units per year.
b) Compute what is the unit price at this point of optimal demand.
ABC Inc. must make a decision on its current capacity for next year. Estimated profits (in $000s) based on next year's
demand are shown in the table below.
Alternative
Expand
Subcontract
Do nothing
Refer to the information above. Assume that ABC Inc. has hired a marketing research firm that provided additional
information regarding next year's demand. Suppose that the probabilities of low and high demand are assessed as follows:
P(Low) = 0.4 and P(High) = 0.6.
What is the expected value under certainty?
160
0
Next Year's Demand
Low High
$100 $200
$50 $120
$40
$50
140
200
The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost
are estimated as follows:
Procurement
Cost($)
10
$
11
12
Probability
0.25
0.45
0.30
Labor
Cost ($)
20
22
24
25
Probability
0.10
0.25
0.35
0.30
Transportation
Cost ($)
3
5
(a) Compute profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios.
Base Case using most likely costs
Profit = $
/unit
Worst Case
Profit = $
/unit
Best Case
Profit = $
/unit
Probability
0.75
0.25
(b) Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials.)
(c) Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?
Simulation will provide ---Select---
of the profit per unit values which can then be used to find ---Select--- ◆ of an unacceptably low…
Chapter 12 Solutions
Contemporary Engineering Economics (6th Edition)
Ch. 12 - Prob. 1PCh. 12 - Prob. 2PCh. 12 - Prob. 3PCh. 12 - Prob. 4PCh. 12 - Prob. 5PCh. 12 - Prob. 7PCh. 12 - Prob. 8PCh. 12 - Prob. 9PCh. 12 - Prob. 10PCh. 12 - Prob. 11P
Ch. 12 - Prob. 12PCh. 12 - Prob. 13PCh. 12 - Prob. 14PCh. 12 - Prob. 15PCh. 12 - Prob. 16PCh. 12 - Prob. 17PCh. 12 - Prob. 18PCh. 12 - Prob. 19PCh. 12 - Prob. 20PCh. 12 - Prob. 21PCh. 12 - Prob. 22PCh. 12 - Prob. 23PCh. 12 - Prob. 24PCh. 12 - Prob. 25PCh. 12 - Prob. 26PCh. 12 - Prob. 27PCh. 12 - Prob. 28P
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