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Three decision makers have assessed utilities for the problem whose payoff table appears below. State of Nature
Decision s1 s2 s3
D1 500 100 -400
D2 200 150 100
D3 -100 200 300
Probability 0.2 0.6 0.2
Indifference Probability for Person
Payoff A B C
300 0.95 0.68 0.45
200 0.94 0.64 0.32
150 0.91 0.62 0.28
100 0.89 0.6 0.22
-100 0.75 0.45 0.1
Characterize each decision maker's attitude toward risk
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- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 What is the expected value of the market research information?…arrow_forwardThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…arrow_forwardThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. Use expected value to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.arrow_forward
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- A European consortium has spent a considerable amount of time andmoney developing a new supersonic aircraft. The aircraft gets high markson all performance measures except noise. In fact, because of the noise,the consortium’s management is concerned that the U.S. government mayimpose restrictions on some of the American airports where the aircraftcan land. Management judges a 50–50 chance that there will be somerestrictions. Without restrictions, management estimates its (presentdiscounted) profit at $125 million; with restrictions, its profit would beonly $25 million. Management must decide now, before knowing thegovernment’s decision, whether to redesign parts of the aircraft to solvethe noise problem. The cost of the redesign program is $25 million. Thereis a .6 chance that the redesign program will solve the noise problem (inwhich case, full landing rights are a certainty) and a .4 chance it will fail. Using a decision tree, determine the consortium’s best course ofaction, assuming…arrow_forwardpls help asap on botharrow_forwardThe first cost of a high-quality excavators is P203.4B or P203.8B depending on the size purchased. The situation presented is: O a. Continuous and Uncertain O b. Continuous and Risk O. Discrete and Certainty O d. Discrete and Riskarrow_forward
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