Suppose the due date of the project is 24 months and expected time of completion is 28 months, while the probability of completing it is 90%. What will be the standard deviation?
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- A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0I draw 5 cards from a deck (replacing each cardimmediately after it is drawn). I receive $4 for each heartthat is drawn. Find the mean and variance of my total payoff.A project has a PV at status of $55000 at the status date and a BAC of $180000 at the end of the project. the project schedule is 14 months and at the status date AC is equal to 121000 and EV has been calculated to be 31000. project sponsor wants to know what the VACdur forecast is in months if a new eac$ is used for revised funding? sponsor assuming the project will continue the way it is currently going.
- Your manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses your firm's computer operations. According to your assistant there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2. If condition I materializes, A will cost $12,000, B will cost $20,000, and C will cost $16,000. If condition II materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for A, $18,000 for B, and $14,000 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for A, $15,000 for B, and $19,000 for C. (A) Draw a decision tree for this problem (B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen? Explain your Answer.3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm’s computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2. If condition I materializes, A will cost $1500, B will cost $2000, and C will cost $1600. If condition II materializes, the costs will be $1500 for A, $1800 for B, and $1900 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be $1000 for A, $1600 for B, and $1900 for C. (A) Draw a decision tree for this problem. (B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen
- A company is considering either (1) purchasing equipment for use on a new project (purchase cost = $5,000; purchase variable cost = $50 per day) or (2) leasing this equipment from a vendor at a rate of $100 per day. An initial analysis determined that the “purchase” option break-even point is 100 days. Based on this analysis, the company should Lease the equipment if the expected project is expected to last more than 100 days Purchase the equipment if the expected project is expected to last less than 100 days Purchase the equipment if the expected project is expected to last more than 100 days No answer text provided.How do we incorporate probability into inventory decisions?The Jennings Construction Company has decided to bid on the construction for each of the two phases of a large project. The bidding requirements are that the costs for each phase be submitted separately together with a transition cost for turning over the first phase of the program to a second contractor should Jennings not receive both awards or perform unsatisfactorily on the first phase. The evaluation for the award of the second phase will not be made until the first phase is near completion. How can the transition costs be identified in the strategic planning model?
- S1: Cost plus contract is a contract used on long term construction contracts in which the contractor agrees to a contract price that is fixed, either at the inception or at a fixed rate per unit of output, which in some cases may be subject to cost escalation clauses.S2: Variable contract is a construction contract in which the contractor is reimbursed for allowable or otherwise defined costs, plus a percentage of these costs or a fixed fee * A. Both are true B. S2 True; S1 False C. Both are false D. S1True; S2 FalseFollowing is the payoff table for the Pittsburgh Development Corporation (PDC) Condominium Project. Amounts are in millions of dollars. State of Nature Decision Alternative Strong Demand S1 Weak Demand S2 Small complex, d1 8 7 Medium complex, d2 14 5 Large complex, d3 20 -9 Suppose PDC is optimistic about the potential for the luxury high-rise condominium complex and that this optimism leads to an initial subjective probability assessment of 0.8 that demand will be strong (S1) and a corresponding probability of 0.2 that demand will be weak (S2). Assume the decision alternative to build the large condominium complex was found to be optimal using the expected value approach. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the payoffs associated with this decision alternative. It was found that the large complex remained optimal as long as the payoff for the strong demand was greater than or equal to $17.5 million and as long as the payoff for…A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: I, II, and III. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: A, which has a probability of occurrence of .3; B, which has a probability of .5; and C, which has a probability of .2.If condition A materializes, I will cost $12,000, II will cost $20,000, and III will cost $16,000. If condition B materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for I, $18,000 for II, and $14,000 for III. If condition C materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for I, $15,000 for II, and $19,000 for III.(A) Draw a decision tree for this problem.(B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen?