following table. Procurement Cost($) 10 11 12 on is Probability 0.25 0.45 0.30 Labor Cost ($) 20 22 24 25 Probability 0.10 0.25 0.35 0.30 (a) Compute profit (in $) per unit for the base-case scenario. $ x /unit (b) Compute profit (in $) per unit for the worst-case scenario. $4 /unit (c) Compute profit (in $) per unit for the best-case scenario. $4 /unit Transportation Cost ($) 3 5 Probability 0.75 0.25 Oduct. The samy P Will De 30 pr cost, the

20.20 Life insurance. You might sell insurance to a 20-year-old friend. The probability that a man aged 20 will die in the next year is about 0.0007. You decide to charge $2000 for a policy that will pay $1 million if your friend dies. a. What is your expected profit on this policy? b. Although you expect to make a good profit, you would be foolish to sell a single policy only to your friend. Why? c. A life insurance company that sells thousands of policies, on the other hand, would do very well selling policies on exactly these same terms. Explain why

# Airlines and hotels often grant reservations in excess of capacity to minimize losses due to no- shows. Suppose the records of a hotel show that 3% of their prospective guests will not claim their reservation. If the hotel accepts 210 reservations and there are only 200 rooms in the hotel, what is the probability that all guests who arrive to claim a room will receive one? a 0.0985 0.6255 0.9207 0.0045 0.9960 $ 0 % < A & W D P cricut

4. In operations management, you learn that intermittent systems produce a variety of products one at a time (or in batches) to customer order. These systems contrast with continuous systems, in which a large number of homogeneous products are produced. One feature of intermittent systems is that new orders arrive at irregular intervals. For example, orders for business letterhead may come into the Ben Franklin Print Shop at the rate of .5 per day. What is the probability that the time between two orders is less than one day?

Suppose 58.8% of small businesses experience cash flow problems in their first 5 years. A consultant takes a random sample of 557 businesses that have been opened for 5 years or less. What is the probability that greater than 55.85% of the businesses have experienced cash flow problems?   Question 2 options:   1)  0.9214   2)  0.5000   3)  -6.0341   4)  0.0786   5)  >0.999

A product is ordered once each year, and the reorder point without safety stock (dL) is 100 units. Inventory carrying cost is $10 per unit per year, and the cost of a stockout is $50 per year. Given the following demand probabilities during the reorder period, how much safety stock should be carried? DEMAND DURING REORDER PERIOD PROBABILITY 0. .1 50 .2 A 100 150 .2 .4 ROP 200 .1 Please show it by working.

The following represents the probability distribution for the daily demand of microcomputers at a local store. Demand Probability 0 .1 1 .2 2 .3 3 .2 4 .2 The expected daily demand is _____.   a. 1.0     b. 2     c. 2.2     d. 4

2. Statistical measures of stand-alone risk Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during a possible circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence. Consider the following case: Ethan owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Happy Dog Soap Company (HDS) and Black Sheep Broadcasting (BSB). Three- quarters of Ethan's portfolio value consists of HDS's shares, and the balance consists of BSB's shares. Each stock's expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in different market conditions are detailed in the following table: Market Condition Probability of Occurrence Happy Dog Soap Black Sheep Broadcasting Strong 0.50 50% 70% Normal 0.25 30% 40% Weak…

The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated as follows: Procurement Cost ($) Probability Labor Cost ($) Probability Transportation Cost ($) Probability 10 0.25 20 0.10 3 0.75 11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25 12 0.30 24 0.35         25 0.30     Compute profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios. Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit. Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios? Management believes the project may not be sustainable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5.

Question 5: A department store prints scratch-and-save discount coupons to distribute to its customers. The numbers for each present discount are shown in the table. Present Discount Number of Each type of discount Available 60% 50 50% 25000 30% 50000 10% 500,000 Determine the expected percent discount. Question 6: An examination consists of 50 multiple-choice items, each with 4 possible answers. what is the probability of guessing 25 or more correct answers? Question 7: A. bank found that 25% of its loans to new  small business become delinquent. Ten small business are selected randomly from the bank's files. a) what is probability that three of them are delinquent? b) what is the probability that at least three of them are delinquent? c) what is the expected delinquency? B. Geometric Distribution Q8: Explain why rolling a die until 3 shows can be modelled by a geometric distribution